Lithuania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Lithuania are projected to edge Bosnia & Herzegovina, with the model giving them 82.9 points to 81.9 and a head-to-head record of two wins from three meetings in their favour.

The hosts have won two of their last five matches, losing three. They scored 406 points and conceded 436 across that run, with victories over Michigan Wolverines 96:84 and Great Britain 89:88, and defeats to Turkey 66:94, Arizona Wildcats 74:88, and Italy 81:82.

Bosnia & Herzegovina have the same record of two wins and three losses in five games, accumulating 6 points. They scored 362 and conceded 383, with wins against Italy 78:76 and Poland 69:60, and losses to Serbia 72:74, Turkey 71:93, and Poland 72:80.

The three encounters in 2022 show Lithuania winning at home 87:70 and 77:56, while Bosnia lost narrowly at home 77:78.

The model's point projections sit a single point apart, and the draw probability is listed as 0%, meaning overtime would be required if the regulation score is level. A conclusion that Lithuania win does not hold if Bosnia outperform their recent scoring average or if Lithuania's defensive struggles continue.

Lithuania's two wins came against lesser opposition in friendlies and a World Cup qualifier away at Great Britain. Their three defeats include a 28-point loss to Turkey and a 14-point defeat to Arizona.

Bosnia's victories were both at home, against Italy in a World Cup match and Poland in a friendly. Their three losses include a 22-point hammering by Turkey and a close 2-point loss to Serbia.

Lithuania have dominated the recent meetings, winning both home fixtures and one away. The 77:78 loss in Bosnia was the closest contest, decided by a single point. The 87:70 and 77:56 victories were more comfortable margins.

The point projections are averages across simulated matches and do not account for specific roster changes or tactical adjustments.