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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves: match prediction on 11 October 2026

NBA Kaseya Center Miami Miss Match page
Miami Heat Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction for

Win: Miami Heat

52%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

52% 1
48% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 9 Oct, 01:05

Match Report: Heat Fall to Wolves at Home

The Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the Miami Heat 125–124 in an NBA fixture on 11 October 2026. Both sides entered the match with identical recent records of two wins and three losses in their previous five games, yet the Timberwolves have won six of eight meetings.

Miami Heat scored 572 points across their last five matches, while Minnesota Timberwolves netted 587 in the same period. The final score of 125–124 came after a 115–125 win for Minnesota in January 2026.

Statistical comparisons from the previous ten matches highlight distinct playing styles. Miami Heat averaged 32.9 assists and 44.4 rebounds per game, compared to Minnesota’s 21.8 assists and 45.0 rebounds. The Heat also shot 44 per cent from the field and hit 15.33 three-pointers on average, whereas the Timberwolves recorded 39.33 per cent field goal accuracy and 14.0 successful three-pointers.

The victory extends Minnesota’s historical advantage over Miami, who have won only two of the eight matches played between the sides in recent years. For Miami, the loss adds to their mixed form, while the Timberwolves have defeated the Heat in their most recent encounter.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 9 Oct, 01:05
  • Майами Хит, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Миннесота Тимбервулвз, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: 8 games, Майами Хит — 2, Миннесота Тимбервулвз — 6

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Miami Heat WWWLW 4 wins · 1 loss
Minnesota Timberwolves WLWWL 3 wins · 2 losses

Head to head 13

3Miami Heat 0Draw 10Minnesota Timberwolves
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+