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Prediction for Farum Women — Aalborg Volley Women
70%
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Shiga vs Shinshu: match prediction on 12 October 2026
Shiga
Shinshu
Prediction for
Win: Shiga
72%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
72%
1
28%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 10 Oct, 06:05- Сига, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Синсю, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Сига — 0, Синсю — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Shiga
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Shinshu
LWLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 9
2Shiga
0Draw
7Shinshu
- 18 Dec 2022Shiga — Shinshu69:83
- 17 Dec 2022Shiga — Shinshu65:72
- 8 May 2022Shiga — Shinshu82:86
- 7 May 2022Shiga — Shinshu65:81
- 14 Nov 2021Shinshu — Shiga90:80
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 10 Oct, 06:05Shinshu to win.
Shinshu's dominance in the fixture
The head-to-head record runs heavily in Shinshu's favour. In six meetings since November 2021, Shinshu have won five, Shiga one. The most recent pair came on 18 December 2022 and 17 December 2022, with Shinshu winning 83-69 and 72-65 at Shiga's arena. Earlier that year, on 8 May and 7 May 2022, the visitors took 86-82 and 81-65 victories.
Recent form mirrors each other
Shiga and Shinshu arrive with identical records in their last five matches: two wins, three losses, six points each. Shiga's results were 105-111 away to Hiroshima, 85-92 loss at home to Tokyo, 98-72 win over Ryukyu, 87-94 loss at home to Ryukyu, and 81-77 away victory against Kyoto. Shinshu's run saw 81-83 loss at home to San-en, 71-74 away defeat to Nagasaki, 89-84 away win over Yokohama, 78-85 away loss to Yokohama, and 99-81 home triumph against Toyama. Both sides have lost three of five, won two, and neither has a draw in that span.
The model's expectation
The statistical model projects Shiga at 211.3 expected points and Shinshu at 30.2. The draw probability sits at 0%, both teams to score at 0%, and three or more at 0%. These figures suggest a straightforward outcome rather than a tight contest. The model operates on accumulated scoring data and does not factor in injuries or fixture pressure — it simply reflects what has happened over repeated simulations of this matchup.
Shiga's home struggles
Shiga have lost three of their last four home games. The losses came to Tokyo Sunrockers 85-92 and Ryukyu Golden Kings 87-94, with a win against Ryukyu 98-72 sandwiched between them. Their only home victory in that sequence was 98-72. They fell to Hiroshima 105-111 away and beat Kyoto 81-77 away. The pattern at home shows vulnerability against teams they have beaten on the road.
What breaks the prediction
A draw would suit the visitors — they have nothing to lose and could run the clock down to protect their lead. If Shinshu take an early advantage and control the tempo, the model's expectation of a decisive result shifts. The 0% draw probability assumes both sides play to win, but in a fixture where Shinshu have dominated, they may choose caution over aggression.