South East Melbourne vs Melbourne United: match prediction on 24 September 2026

South East Melbourne Phoenix to win, 62% confidence. The visitors carry a clear historical advantage—11 victories in 16 meetings—while the model projects them to score 92.8 points against 97.4 for the hosts. That gap is narrow, but the pattern of results tilts toward Melbourne United.

The form is identical on paper. Both sides have won two and lost three in their last five games, each picking up six points. South East Melbourne’s recent results include a 91:96 loss, a 100:79 win, a 96:108 loss, a 101:92 win, and a 97:104 loss, while Melbourne United’s are 95:97, 77:95, 82:68, 95:91, and 91:100. The scatter of scores shows neither team has settled into a rhythm, and neither has found consistency in defence.

Melbourne United have dominated the fixture over recent years. They won 95:91 at home in February, 103:83 in September 2025, 103:93 in February 2025, and 81:92 in November 2025. South East Melbourne's victories came at 111:86 in December 2025 and 109:97 in December 2024. The visitors have won four of the last five encounters, including the most recent meeting where they held a four-point lead.

That suggests a tight game decided by a margin of roughly five points. United's pace will force Phoenix into late-game turnovers.

A Melbourne United victory stops holding if they fail to capitalise on their head-to-head edge. They have won four of five recent meetings, but two of those wins came by single digits. If South East Melbourne matches their intensity and the visitors cannot close out a quarter, the result flips. Cole Anthony's presence adds scoring depth.

Outcome: South East Melbourne Phoenix win, 62% confidence.

The visitors have won four of the last five meetings between these sides, including the most recent 95:91 at home on 19 February 2026. That streak matters more than the identical 2-3 records in their last five games. Both teams have scored and conceded at similar rates—South East Melbourne 485:479, Melbourne United 440:451—but the pattern of results against each other tilts the balance.

The model projects 97.4 points for South East Melbourne and 92.8 for Melbourne United. The expectation is that one side will find a run in the final quarter rather than the game remaining tight until the buzzer.

Melbourne United's recent form includes a 95:91 win over South East Melbourne and a 82:68 victory against Tasmania JackJumpers. They have also lost to Adelaide 95:97 at home and to Perth Wildcats 77:95 away. They win by ten, lose by three. That volatility works against them if South East Melbourne finds their rhythm.

Cole Anthony joined Melbourne United after an NBA snub, according to Joe Ingles' comments on 18 September 2026. His addition adds scoring depth, but his integration into the system is still unfolding. If he contributes immediately, Melbourne United's chances improve. If he struggles to find his role, the visitors may rely too heavily on their established players.