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Bangladesh Women vs India Women: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Bangladesh Women
India Women
Prediction for
Win: Bangladesh Women
87%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
87%
1
13%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 08:21- Женская сборная Бангладеш — 2. place, 4 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Женская сборная Индии — 1. place, 6 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Женская сборная Бангладеш, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Женская сборная Индии, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 18 games, Женская сборная Бангладеш — 5, 1 draws, Женская сборная Индии — 12
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Bangladesh Women
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
India Women
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 20
5Bangladesh Women
1Draw
14India Women
- 20 SepBangladesh Women — India Women81:195/4
- 25 JunBangladesh Women — India Women136/8:139/5
- 26 Oct 2025India Women — Bangladesh Women57/0:119/9
- 1 Oct 2024Bangladesh Women — India Women144/8:109
- 26 Jul 2024Bangladesh Women — India Women80/8:83/0
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 08:21Bangladesh Women win, 87% confidence. India's unbeaten run in the group does not translate to this fixture.
Group standings and what they mean
India Women sit atop the T20 Asia Cup table with 6 points from 3 matches, a perfect 3 wins from 3. Bangladesh Women are second on 4 points from 3 matches, having lost one of their opening games. The gap is two points, and India need a win to secure top spot. Bangladesh must win and hope India slip up elsewhere.
Recent form tells different stories
Bangladesh's last five matches produced 2 wins and 3 losses. India's last five showed 4 wins from 5. Bangladesh beat United Arab Emirates Women 103-69 away on 8 September but lost to Sri Lanka Women 114-115 at home on 6 September. India beat Pakistan Women 57-55 at home on 5 September and Hong Kong Women 193-56 away on 3 September, with their only defeat in that span coming against Australia Women 170-172 away on 28 June.
Head-to-head history is mixed
The last six meetings between these sides have been unpredictable. India won three: by 3 runs on 25 June 2026, by 3 runs on 26 July 2024, and by 21 runs on 9 May 2024. Bangladesh won three: by 62 runs on 26 October 2025, by 35 runs on 1 October 2024, and by 54 runs on 6 May 2024. The most recent encounter was a tight India victory by 3 runs in the T20 World Cup.
Model expectations defy the record
The simulation gives Bangladesh Women 181.6 expected runs and India Women 94.6. That is a 87-run gap in Bangladesh's favour. The model also rates the draw probability at 0%, no wickets at 0%, and no boundaries at 0%. These figures suggest one side should dominate the scoreboard. Bangladesh's recent batting output against Indonesia Women (129-58) and United Arab Emirates Women (103-69) supports the higher projection.
When this prediction breaks
But the model says 0% probability for that outcome. India must bat past 95 to overturn the projection. An early collapse in Bangladesh's innings would also overturn the model's expectation.
The 2024 edition was held in Dhaka.
Bangladesh Women win, 87% confidence. India's unbeaten run in the group does not translate to this fixture.
Group standings and what they mean
India Women sit atop the T20 Asia Cup table with 6 points from 3 matches, a perfect 3 wins from 3. Bangladesh Women are second on 4 points from 3 matches, having lost one of their opening games. The gap is two points, and India need a win to secure top spot. Bangladesh must win and hope India slip up elsewhere.
Recent form tells different stories
Bangladesh's last five matches produced 2 wins and 3 losses. India's last five showed 4 wins from 5. Bangladesh beat United Arab Emirates Women 103-69 away on 8 September but lost to Sri Lanka Women 114-115 at home on 6 September. India beat Pakistan Women 57-55 at home on 5 September and Hong Kong Women 193-56 away on 3 September, with their only defeat in that span coming against Australia Women 170-172 away on 28 June.
Head-to-head history is mixed
The last six meetings between these sides have been unpredictable. India won three: by 3 runs on 25 June 2026, by 3 runs on 26 July 2024, and by 21 runs on 9 May 2024. Bangladesh won three: by 62 runs on 26 October 2025, by 35 runs on 1 October 2024, and by 54 runs on 6 May 2024. The most recent encounter was a tight India victory by 3 runs in the T20 World Cup.
Model expectations defy the record
The simulation gives Bangladesh Women 181.6 expected runs and India Women 94.6. That is a 87-run gap in Bangladesh's favour. The model also rates the draw probability at 0%, no wickets at 0%, and no boundaries at 0%. These figures suggest one side should dominate the scoreboard. Bangladesh's recent batting output against Indonesia Women (129-58) and United Arab Emirates Women (103-69) supports the higher projection.
When this prediction breaks
But the model says 0% probability for that outcome. India must bat past 95 to overturn the projection. An early collapse in Bangladesh's innings would also overturn the model's expectation.
The 2024 edition was held in Dhaka.