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Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Prediction for
Win: Hampshire Women
81%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 2
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 4 Sep, 10:49Hampshire Women are heavy favourites to extend their dominance over Yorkshire Women when the sides meet in the Women's One-Day Cup on 6 September. The gap between them is stark: Hampshire sit second with 46 points from 13 matches, while Yorkshire languish eighth with just 16 points from 12. The model expects Hampshire to post around 229 runs against Yorkshire's projected 140, a margin that reflects both the table positions and the recent head-to-head record. Hampshire have won 10 of 13 games, a record that contributes to their 46-point tally.
Hampshire have won 10 of their 13 games, losing only three, while Yorkshire have managed just three victories from 12 outings. That 30-point difference is not a rounding error; it is the kind of chasm that separates a genuine title contender from a side fighting for survival. Recent form does not contradict this picture. Hampshire have taken two wins from their last five, including a narrow 201-200 victory away at Durham on 3 September. Yorkshire have won just once in the same period, that solitary success coming against Lancashire on 10 July.
They have met twice this season, and Hampshire have won both encounters. On 13 May Yorkshire hosted Hampshire in the One-Day Cup and were beaten 205-196. Then on 26 June Hampshire took the Vitality Blast match at home and won 174-132. Yorkshire have not found a way past Hampshire in any of these fixtures, and the pattern suggests they would need a complete reversal of fortune to do so here.
The model projects 228.8 runs for Hampshire and 140.1 for Yorkshire. A figure of 228.8 for Hampshire means they most often score between 220 and 240 runs; 140.1 for Yorkshire suggests a total in the 130-150 range. The gap of roughly 89 runs is substantial in one-day cricket, and it aligns with what the league table and head-to-head record already show. There is no reason to expect Yorkshire to suddenly close that distance without a significant shift in conditions or personnel, neither of which the data indicates.
This conclusion stops holding if Yorkshire start the match with a full-strength attack and maintain it for 50 overs while Hampshire lose key batsmen early. It also breaks down if the pitch offers unexpected assistance to spin or if a rain interruption reduces the match to a format that favours Yorkshire's bowling strength.
Yorkshire have not beaten Hampshire in two meetings this season, and their 30-point deficit in the table is not something that closes in a single match without extraordinary circumstances.