A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.
Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models
Prediction accuracy
59%
9212 / 15559
Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club
Panadura Sports Club
Prediction for Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club — Panadura Sports Club
Win: Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club
Guyana Amazon Warriors
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons
Prediction for Guyana Amazon Warriors — Antigua and Barbuda Falcons
United Arab Emirates Women
Bangladesh Women
Prediction for United Arab Emirates Women — Bangladesh Women
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Prediction for Oman — United Arab Emirates
Hong Kong
Nepal
Prediction for Hong Kong — Nepal
Hong Kong Women
Pakistan Women
Prediction for Hong Kong Women — Pakistan Women
Colombo Cricket Club
Sinhalese Sports Club
Prediction for Colombo Cricket Club — Sinhalese Sports Club
Moors Sports Club
Colts Cricket Club
Prediction for Moors Sports Club — Colts Cricket Club
Kuwait
Qatar
Prediction for Kuwait — Qatar
Malaysia
Bahrain
Prediction for Malaysia — Bahrain
Barbados Tridents
St Lucia Kings
Prediction for Barbados Tridents — St Lucia Kings
Guyana Amazon Warriors
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Prediction for Guyana Amazon Warriors — St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Lancashire Women
Durham Women
Prediction for Lancashire Women — Durham Women
The Blaze Women
Somerset Women
Prediction for The Blaze Women — Somerset Women
Hampshire Women
Yorkshire Women
Prediction for Hampshire Women — Yorkshire Women
Essex Women
Surrey Women
Prediction for Essex Women — Surrey Women
Nepal
Saudi Arabia
Prediction for Nepal — Saudi Arabia
Singapore
United Arab Emirates
Prediction for Singapore — United Arab Emirates
Barbados Tridents
Trinbago Knight Riders
Prediction for Barbados Tridents — Trinbago Knight Riders
Police Sports Club
Panadura Sports Club
Prediction for Police Sports Club — Panadura Sports Club
Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club
Badureliya Sports Club
Prediction for Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club — Badureliya Sports Club
Win: Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club
Moors Sports Club
Burgher Recreation Club
Prediction for Moors Sports Club — Burgher Recreation Club
Colts Cricket Club
Nondescripts Cricket Club
Prediction for Colts Cricket Club — Nondescripts Cricket Club
Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club
Colombo Cricket Club
Prediction for Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club — Colombo Cricket Club
Win: Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.
Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.
Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.
The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.