A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.
Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models
Prediction accuracy
59%
9212 / 15559
Sinhalese Sports Club
Ace Capital Cricket Club
Prediction for Sinhalese Sports Club — Ace Capital Cricket Club
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Prediction for Malaysia — Hong Kong
Kuwait
Oman
Prediction for Kuwait — Oman
Guyana Amazon Warriors
Jamaica Kingsmen
Prediction for Guyana Amazon Warriors — Jamaica Kingsmen
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Prediction for Bahrain — Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Singapore
Prediction for Qatar — Singapore
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
St Lucia Kings
Prediction for St Kitts and Nevis Patriots — St Lucia Kings
Yorkshire Women
Somerset Women
Prediction for Yorkshire Women — Somerset Women
Lancashire Women
Surrey Women
Prediction for Lancashire Women — Surrey Women
Warwickshire Women
Essex Women
Prediction for Warwickshire Women — Essex Women
Durham Women
Hampshire Women
Prediction for Durham Women — Hampshire Women
Panadura Sports Club
Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club
Prediction for Panadura Sports Club — Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club
Win: Kurunegala Youth Cricket Club
Police Sports Club
Colts Cricket Club
Prediction for Police Sports Club — Colts Cricket Club
Burgher Recreation Club
Badureliya Sports Club
Prediction for Burgher Recreation Club — Badureliya Sports Club
Colombo Cricket Club
Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club
Prediction for Colombo Cricket Club — Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club
Win: Tamil Union Cricket and Athletic Club
Ace Capital Cricket Club
Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club
Prediction for Ace Capital Cricket Club — Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club
Win: Nugegoda Sports Welfare Club
Bloomfield Cricket and Athletic Club
Sinhalese Sports Club
Prediction for Bloomfield Cricket and Athletic Club — Sinhalese Sports Club
Malaysia
Nepal
Prediction for Malaysia — Nepal
Kuwait
United Arab Emirates
Prediction for Kuwait — United Arab Emirates
Trinbago Knight Riders
Antigua and Barbuda Falcons
Prediction for Trinbago Knight Riders — Antigua and Barbuda Falcons
Bahrain
Hong Kong
Prediction for Bahrain — Hong Kong
Oman
Qatar
Prediction for Oman — Qatar
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots
Barbados Tridents
Prediction for St Kitts and Nevis Patriots — Barbados Tridents
Bloomfield Cricket and Athletic Club
Colts Cricket Club
Prediction for Bloomfield Cricket and Athletic Club — Colts Cricket Club
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.
Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.
Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.
The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.