Guinea

Match report

Guinea beat Kenya 1-0 in the second round of the CAF Nations Cup Qualification group stage on Wednesday. The match ended 1-0 with Serhou Guirassy's thirty-second-minute strike proving decisive. By then the hosts had already been tracking the game closely, and a single moment would separate them from a sixth consecutive defeat.

The opening half saw neither side create much, but Guinea grew into the contest. Guirassy found space inside the box and finished past the Kenya keeper. The visitors tried to respond but could only manage two shots on target all match. And here's the thing — it wasn't about volume, it was about efficiency.

Kenya made two changes at half-time, bringing on Micah Obiero and Job Ochieng. Guinea followed with three substitutions on the hour mark: Aliou Balde, Mohammed Bajaber, and Seydouba Cisse. The visitors added Ben Stanley Omondi in the seventy-fourth minute, while Abdoul Karim Traoré came on for Guinea at seventy-six. Yadaly Diaby and C. Erambo were the final pair of changes, both brought on in the eighties.

We had tipped the hosts to win, and at fifty-one per cent confidence, it felt like the safer bet. Guinea's attacking output told the story — one hundred and five attacks against seventy-one for Kenya. They registered three shots on target, while the visitors managed two. The shot accuracy figures were similar: thirty-three per cent for Guinea, forty per cent for Kenya. Possession sat at fifty-two per cent to forty-eight, but the difference was in what each side did with it.

Guinea now sit fourth in the group with a single point from two matches after this win. Kenya remain second with one point from their opening draw. The goal difference gap is narrow, and the group has barely begun to take shape. To be fair, these qualifiers don't always reward the dominant side — sometimes they reward the one that doesn't waste its moments.

Prepared from match data

Key numbers

Possession, % 52 – 48

Shots on target 3 – 2

Shots off target 3 – 2

Attacks 105 – 71

🟨 16' mohammed bajaber — Yellow card ⚽ 32' Serhou Guirassy — Goal ⇄ 45' Micah Obiero — Substitution ⇄ 45' Job Ochieng — Substitution ⇄ 45' Aboubacar Keita — Substitution ⇄ 60' Aliou Balde — Substitution ⇄ 60' mohammed bajaber — Substitution ⇄ 60' Seydouba Cisse — Substitution 🟨 64' Mohamed Camara — Yellow card ⇄ 74' Ben Stanley Omondi — Substitution ⇄ 76' Abdoul Karim Traoré — Substitution ⇄ 83' Yadaly Diaby — Substitution ⇄ 87' C. Erambo — Substitution

Match events

16' 0:0 Kenya Yellow card mohammed bajaber
32' 1:0 Guinea Goal Serhou Guirassy
45' 1:0 Kenya Substitution Micah Obiero off: Timothy Ouma
45' 1:0 Kenya Substitution Job Ochieng off: Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam
45' 1:0 Guinea Substitution Aboubacar Keita off: Mory Konate
60' 1:0 Guinea Substitution Aliou Balde off: Aguibou Camara
60' 1:0 Kenya Substitution mohammed bajaber off: Shariff Sirengo
60' 1:0 Guinea Substitution Seydouba Cisse off: Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
64' 1:0 Guinea Yellow card Mohamed Camara
74' 1:0 Kenya Substitution Ben Stanley Omondi off: Javan Omondi Ochieng
76' 1:0 Guinea Substitution Abdoul Karim Traoré off: Ousmane Camara
83' 1:0 Guinea Substitution Yadaly Diaby off: Lamine Diaby Fadiga
87' 1:0 Kenya Substitution C. Erambo off: Amos Wanjala

Statistics

52 Possession, % 48

3 Shots on target 2

3 Shots off target 2

105 Attacks 71

5 Corners 2

10 Fouls 17

16 Free kicks 7

4 Offsides 1

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

5 Goal kicks 5

25 Throw-ins 31

All statistics

3 Blocked shots 1

57 Failed passes 58

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

0.33 Shot accuracy 0.40

3 Shots from outside the box 2

6 Shots inside the box 3

342 Total passes 317

Line-ups

Starting XI
#	Player	number
22	M. Camara	22
3	Aboubacar Kobele Keita	3
5	Mohamed Soumah	5
6	Ibrahima Fofana	6
21	Sekou Sylla	21
8	A. K. Traoré	8
10	Aliou Badara Balde	10
11	Yadaly Diaby	11
15	Seydouba Cissé	15
19	O. Diabaté	19
9	Serhou Yadaly Guirassy	9

Substitutes
#	Player	number
1	Mussa Diallo	1
4	Saïdou Sow	4
13	M. Keita	13
17	Ibrahim Sory Bangoura	17
18	Aguibou Camara	18
20	Mory Konate	20
24	Mohamed Lamine Diaby-Fadiga	24
14	Morlaye Sylla	14
25	Ousmane Camara	25

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Kenya

Starting XI
#	Player	number
4	M. Kibwage	4
5	Frank Onyango Odhiambo	5
16	R. Onyango	16
20	M. Okwaro	20
8	Duke Ooga Abuya	8
19	G. Ochong	19
22	Micah Obiero	22

Substitutes
#	Player	number
14	A. Wanjala	14
17	Vincent Harper	17
10	Timothy Noor Ouma	10
21	O. S. Wilson	21
15	R. Ogam	15

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Match prediction: Guinea — Kenya

Win: Guinea

Confidence 51%

Reasoning

Гвинея — 4. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
Кения — 2. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
Гвинея, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
Кения, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses

Full prediction

Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

Recent form

Guinea

DDLLLW

Recent matches

All team matches

Kenya

DWDWDL

Recent matches

All team matches

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Points
1	South Africa	2	2	0	0	6
2	Guinea	2	1	0	1	3
3	Kenya	2	0	1	1	1
4	Eritrea	2	0	1	1	1

Guinea — Kenya: 1:0, Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Match report

Key numbers

Match events

Statistics

Line-ups

Guinea

Kenya

Match prediction: Guinea — Kenya

Reasoning

Recent form

Guinea

Kenya