I Liga
Anilana Lodz
KS Warszawianka
Prediction for Anilana Lodz — KS Warszawianka
80%
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Alianza FC vs Independiente de La Chorrera: match prediction on 29 September 2026
Alianza FC
Independiente de La Chorrera
Prediction for
Slight edge: Alianza FC
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
40%
1
30%
X
30%
2
Average bookmaker line (8)
2.23
1
3.03
X
2.95
2
Odds range
2.10 — 2.37
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Sep, 02:15- Алианса — 2. place, 27 points after 16 games (6 wins, 9 draws, 1 losses)
- Индепендиэнте де Ла-Чоррера — 3. place, 20 points after 16 games (4 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses)
- Алианса, last 5 games: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses
- Индепендиэнте де Ла-Чоррера, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Алианса — 2, 4 draws, Индепендиэнте де Ла-Чоррера — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Alianza FC
DDLDW
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Independiente de La Chorrera
LLDWL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 14
4Alianza FC
7Draw
3Independiente de La Chorrera
- 6 MayAlianza FC — Independiente de La Chorrera2:2
- 15 MarAlianza FC — Independiente de La Chorrera1:0
- 31 Aug 2025Independiente de La Chorrera — Alianza FC2:2
- 27 Feb 2025Alianza FC — Independiente de La Chorrera1:1
- 9 Sep 2024Alianza FC — Independiente de La Chorrera1:0
Bookmaker market
8
bookmakers counted
2.23
Average bookmaker line
2.10 — 2.37
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Sep, 02:15The model puts the home side's chances at 40% once the handicap is stripped out, and that figure holds as long as Alianza FC can convert their expected 1.4 goals into something tangible. If Independiente score first and manage the tempo, the prediction falls apart — they have won two of their last five and look capable of taking points away from home.
Uneven recent runs
Alianza FC have not tasted victory in five matches, collecting three draws and two defeats for just three points while conceding seven goals. Their defensive frailty shows in the way they let in 32% of their goals after the 76th minute, a pattern that could prove costly against a side that has scored 20% of theirs in the closing quarter of an hour.
Head-to-head history
The record over the past few years tells a story of tight contests. In eight meetings there have been two wins for each side and four draws, with the most recent encounter ending 2:2 in May.
Table position and context
Alianza FC sit second on 27 points from 16 matches, their record of six wins, nine draws and one defeat making them the most consistent side in the league. Independiente are seven points adrift on 20 points, with four wins, eight draws and four losses. Both clubs are pushing for a play-off place, and the gap means Alianza can afford to be cautious while Independiente may feel pressure to attack.
Model expectations
The model projects 1.4 goals for Alianza FC and 1.0 for Independiente, with a 31% probability of a draw and 47% for both teams to score. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 15%, 1:0 at 12%, and 0:0 at 12%. These figures suggest a match decided by fine margins, which is why the home win remains the baseline until Independiente find an early breakthrough.
Line movement
The odds have shifted slightly since the opening prices on 28 September. The away win drifted from 2.88 to 2.93, the draw moved up from 2.99 to 3.02, and the home price dipped marginally from 2.26 to 2.25.
The home win prediction stands unless Independiente score early and control the game, or if Alianza FC's defensive vulnerabilities in the final 15 minutes are exposed. The model's 1.4 expected goals for the hosts is not a guarantee, and if they fail to convert, the draw becomes the more likely outcome.