Alianza vs Inca Aruba: match prediction on 27 September 2026

Match Report: Alianza vs Inca Aruba

The win extended Alianza’s head-to-head dominance, having already defeated Inca Aruba 3-1 earlier in the season on 26 July.

The bookmakers had suggested a late-game narrative for the fixture. Both sides had demonstrated a propensity to concede in the closing stages of matches over recent months, with Alianza allowing 44% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and Inca Aruba conceding 43% in the same period. However, Alianza’s attacking output was more consistent, averaging 3.9 shots on target per match compared to Inca Aruba’s 4.33, while the hosts also maintained greater possession at 51% versus the visitors’ 44%. The model’s pre-match prediction of 1.8 goals for Alianza and 0.9 for Inca Aruba indicated a narrow edge for the home team, with a 25% probability assigned to a draw.

Form figures provided context for the encounter, showing Inca Aruba on a hotter streak with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their previous five games, 10 points. Alianza, by contrast, had collected only six points from their last five matches, recording one win, three draws, and one loss. Despite this, Alianza’s home record remained strong, having secured victories against Municipal Limeño and drawn with Fuerte San Francisco and Águila in recent days. The visitors’ efficiency in front of goal was evident from their scoring distribution, with half of their eight goals coming in the final 15 minutes of matches, whereas Alianza’s 48 goals were more evenly spread across the pitch.

Key performers for Alianza included Gustavo Sousa, who had scored four goals in the preceding six months, and N. Rivera, who had netted three. For Inca Aruba, B. Paz was their top scorer with two goals, though the team kept leaking goals late.