Aluminij vs Celje: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Celje are the slight favourites for this 1. SNL fixture, with the model projecting 2.0 expected goals for the visitors against 1.1 for Aluminij. The 1:2 scoreline carries the highest individual probability at 10%, tied with 1:1, while 0:1 follows at 9%. That edge exists because Celje have won four of nine meetings overall and took a 5:0 victory in April, yet the conclusion stops holding if Aluminij's home form—three wins in five—translates into a result the data does not anticipate.

Aluminij sit fourth on eight points from six matches, having won two, drawn two and lost two. Their last five games produced three victories, one draw and one defeat, yielding ten points and a nine-goal advantage over five. They beat Koper 1:0 away, Brinje-Grosuplje 4:2 at home and Radomlje 3:1 away before drawing 1:1 with Nafta and losing 0:1 to Olimpija Ljubljana. Celje occupy fifth on the same eight points but from one fewer game, their record reading two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their recent five matches brought two wins, one draw and two losses for seven points, with goals level at eight apiece. They lost 1:4 away to Brinje-Grosuplje and 1:2 away to Slovan Bratislava, drew 1:1 away to Slovan Bratislava, won 3:1 away at Nafta and beat Ararat-Armenia 2:0 at home.

The head-to-head record shows Aluminij with three wins, two draws and four defeats across nine meetings. The most recent encounter ended 5:0 to Celje on 26 April, before Aluminij responded with a 2:1 home win on 5 March. A friendly on 4 February 2024 saw Aluminij win 4:1. Aluminij score heavily in the 61-75 minute window, accounting for 25% of their 24 goals, while Celje have 22% of their 63 goals in each of the 31-45 and 76-90 segments.

The model gives Celje a clear advantage in expected output, with 2.0 goals projected compared to 1.1 for Aluminij. The draw probability sits at 22%, while both teams to score comes in at 57% and three or more goals at 59%. Celje average 1.75 xG over ten matches and record 4.3 shots on target compared to Aluminij's 3.2. They also control 58% possession versus 44% and generate 5.2 corners to 4.8. Suspensions loom for both sides: Celje face the absence of Artemijus Tutyškinas on six yellows and Damjan Vukliševič after a red on 26 August, while Aluminij could miss Vid Koderman, Rok Schaubach and Matic Vrbanec on yellow card accumulation.

The prediction assumes Celje's higher expected goals and recent H2H dominance translate into a result. It breaks down if Aluminij's home record—particularly their 4:2 win over Brinje-Grosuplje and 3:1 victory at Radomlje—proves decisive. A draw would suit neither side completely, though the 22% probability suggests it remains a genuine possibility. Celje's away form has been mixed, with two losses in their last five, and Aluminij's attack has been productive at home. If the visitors cannot convert their chances, the model's edge evaporates.