Andijan vs Kokand-1912: match prediction on 10 September 2026

Andijan to win at 1.98. The market has priced the hosts as favourites and the model backs that view, expecting 1.3 goals from Andijan against 0.9 for Kokand-1912. The draw sits at 3.05, but the visitors' defensive solidity over five matches without defeat makes a stalemate plausible — and that is where the conclusion breaks.

Kokand-1912 have taken nine points from their last five games, with two wins and three draws leaving them unbeaten. They drew 1:1 at home against Dinamo Samarqand on 5 September, then beat Bunyodkor 1:0 away two days later. Before that came a 2:1 home victory over Lokomotiv and a goalless draw away at Nasaf. The pattern is methodical: they do not lose, but they do not always win either. Andijan, by contrast, have lost three of their last five — a 3:0 defeat away to Pakhtakor on 4 September, a 3:0 home loss to Neftchi, and a 1:0 away loss to Sogdiana. They won 1:0 at home against Xorazm and 1:0 away at Mash'al, but those victories were narrow and did not shift the overall trajectory.

Andijan score heavily in the final quarter. Nearly half their goals — 47 per cent — come between the 76th and 90th minute, while they concede 43 per cent of their goals in the same period. This suggests they start matches cautiously and open up as fatigue sets in. Kokand-1912 have a different profile. They score 21 per cent of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and concede 24 per cent in that window. They also lose 43 per cent of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute. The match could be decided early, or it could unravel late.

Recent head-to-head meetings do not favour the visitors. In three matches over the past year, Andijan won one, drew two, and Kokand-1912 failed to win any. The most recent meeting ended 0:0 at Kokand-1912's ground on 19 April 2026. Before that, Andijan won 3:0 at home in August 2025, and the match before that was a 1:1 draw in March 2025. The pattern is tight games, with Andijan rarely losing.

The model's most likely scoreline is 1:0 to Andijan at 15 per cent, followed by 1:1 at 13 per cent and 0:0 at 11 per cent. The draw probability stands at 29 per cent, while both teams to score sits at 43 per cent. The line moved overnight: away odds dropped from 3.74 to 3.67, a fall of 2.1 per cent, while home odds rose from 1.96 to 1.98. The market is tightening around the hosts. A draw suits Kokand-1912 — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.

The prediction stops holding if Kokand-1912 protect a lead and drag the game into extra time, or if Andijan's late-game scoring pattern fails to materialise and the visitors score first. The model expects 1.3 goals from the hosts, but that is an average over many simulated versions of the match. If the visitors keep their defensive shape and exploit the 46th-to-60th-minute window where they concede most, the result shifts.