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Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
50%
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Aston Villa vs Arsenal: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Prediction for
Win: Arsenal
50%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
15%
1
22%
X
63%
2
Average bookmaker line (49)
6.29
1
4.30
X
1.51
2
Odds range
1.48 — 1.73
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 20:03- Астон Вилла — 19. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Арсенал — 5. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Астон Вилла, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Арсенал, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Астон Вилла — 3, 1 draws, Арсенал — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Aston Villa
DWLWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Arsenal
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 12
5Aston Villa
1Draw
6Arsenal
- 30 Dec 2025Arsenal — Aston Villa4:1
- 6 Dec 2025Aston Villa — Arsenal2:1
- 18 Jan 2025Arsenal — Aston Villa2:2
- 24 Aug 2024Aston Villa — Arsenal0:2
- 14 Apr 2024Arsenal — Aston Villa0:2
Bookmaker market
49
bookmakers counted
1.51
Average bookmaker line
1.48 — 1.73
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 20:03Arsenal are favourites at 1.50 with the market, and the model backs that position with 63% probability after stripping the margin. The line has not moved since opening, which suggests no fresh information has shifted the assessment. The model expects Arsenal to score 1.6 goals while Villa manage 1, putting a narrow away win on the cards.
Arsenal's sharp start
Arsenal began the season with two consecutive 3-0 victories, first against Manchester City in the Community Shield and then Coventry in the Premier League. Their last five matches read 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have been strongest at home, scoring 3 goals in each of their two most recent wins.
Villa's barren spell
They sit 19th in the table with 0 points from 1 match. Their last five form line is 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses with 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Villa scored in only one of those five games, a 3-1 friendly win against Bangkok Glass.
Recent meetings
The last encounter between these sides ended 4-1 to Arsenal at the Emirates in December 2025. In eight matches over recent years Arsenal have won 4, Villa 3, with 1 draw. Arsenal's 4-1 victory at home suggests they can exploit spaces when Villa push forward, while Villa's 2-1 win at Villa Park in December shows they are capable of causing trouble on their own turf.
What the numbers suggest
The model's most likely scorelines are 1-1 at 12%, 0-1 at 12%, and 1-2 at 9%. The draw probability sits at 25%, with both teams to score at 51%. Villa score 23% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and concede 20% in that period, while Arsenal concede 32% of their goals in the same window. A late goal could swing the result either way.
The prediction for an Arsenal win stops holding if Villa find an early breakthrough. A goal in the first 15 minutes would change the dynamic entirely, forcing Arsenal to open up and potentially leaving them vulnerable to a counter. Villa have scored 11% of their goals in that opening period, and Arsenal have conceded 9% in the same window.