Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Bolívar
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Prediction for
Win: Bolívar
88%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
88%
1
8%
X
3%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:29- Боливар — 2. place, 42 points after 19 games (13 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses)
- Гуальберто Вильярроэль — 16. place, 14 points after 19 games (2 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses)
- Боливар, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Гуальберто Вильярроэль, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Боливар — 6, Гуальберто Вильярроэль — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Bolívar
DWWDW
3 wins · 2 draws
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 9
6Bolívar
0Draw
3Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- 2 SepGualberto Villarroel SJ — Bolívar0:1
- 3 MayGualberto Villarroel SJ — Bolívar1:2
- 28 Sep 2025Gualberto Villarroel SJ — Bolívar0:2
- 8 Jun 2025Bolívar — Gualberto Villarroel SJ1:3
- 22 Feb 2025Bolívar — Gualberto Villarroel SJ7:1
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:29Bolívar to win. The gap between second and sixteenth in the standings is not merely numerical — it is visible in the last five matches, where Bolívar collected 13 points from four victories and a draw while Gualberto Villarroel SJ managed just three points from a single win. The model expects 3.2 goals for the hosts and 0.5 for the visitors, with the most probable scoreline 3:0 at 13%.
Bolívar have not lost in five matches. They beat Real Tomayapo 2:1 away, drew 1:1 at home with Independiente Petrolero, then won 4:0 and 1:0 on successive trips, before a 4:2 home victory over The Strongest. They have scored 12 goals and conceded four across those fixtures. Their attacking output peaks in the final quarter — 26% of their 80 goals come between the 76th and 90th minute — and they have already shown they can finish games decisively. Their defensive record is tighter in the opening periods, with only 9% of conceded goals in the first 15 minutes.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ have lost four of their last five matches. They were beaten 3:0 at home by Nacional Potosí, lost 5:1 away to Blooming, and went down 3:0 at Aurora. The only result in that span was a 4:1 home win against Real Oruro. They have scored five goals and conceded 13. Their defensive vulnerability is most acute in the first half — 23% of the 31 goals they have let in arrive between the 31st and 45th minute, and another 23% between the 61st and 75th.
The head-to-head record reinforces the contrast. Bolívar have won four of the last six meetings, including a 1:0 away victory in the Copa de la División Profesional on 2 September and a 2:1 Primera División win at the same venue in May. The only exception was a 3:1 home loss in June 2025.
The prediction does not hold if Gualberto Villarroel SJ find a way to control the early phases. They have conceded 23% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, and if they can limit Bolívar's opening pressure, the model's expectation of 3.2 goals for the hosts becomes harder to sustain.