MPBL
Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
67%
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Brühl
Prediction for
Win: Brühl
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:59Brühl are projected to win, with 64% confidence.
The hosts sit fifth in the 1. Liga Promotion table with seven points from four matches, two wins, one draw, one loss. Amical Saint-Prex occupy ninth place with six points, two victories and two defeats. The gap is narrow but Brühl have shown more consistency, taking a point from their last two outings while the visitors lost both of theirs.
Brühl's recent form reads three wins, one draw, one loss across five games. They scored 12 goals and conceded just three, including a 6-0 away victory in the Schweizer Pokal and back-to-back clean sheets against Luzern II and Bavois. Amical Saint-Prex managed two wins and three losses, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Their only win in that span came 3-1 against YF Juventus at home; the 0-6 defeat away to Grand-Saconnex stands out as the worst result.
The model projects Brühl to average 2.5 goals and Amical Saint-Prex 1.3. The draw probability sits at 18%, both teams to score at 66%, and three or more goals at 73%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, followed by 3-1 at 8% and 1-1 at 7%. Brühl have a habit of finishing matches strongly, with 39% of their 23 goals arriving after the 75th minute and another 22% between 61 and 75 minutes.
Amical Saint-Prex have struggled to hold leads away from home. Their only away result in the last five was the heavy loss to Grand-Saconnex, while at home they beat Bellinzona 1-0 but lost to Stade Nyonnais 1-3. Brühl's defensive vulnerability peaks in the 31-45 minute window, where 36% of their 14 conceded goals fall, but they have not shipped more than one goal in any of their last four league matches.
A draw suits the visitors if they can absorb pressure and exploit transitions, which is the main weakness in the prediction. The prediction falls apart if Amical Saint-Prex find a way to keep Brühl quiet in the opening half, when the hosts have scored 13% of their goals but also conceded 7%. A first-half lead for the away side would change the dynamic entirely.