Chertanovo vs KR Reykjavik Women: match prediction on 5 September 2026

Chertanovo are favourites to win this Vysshaya Liga Women fixture at 45% confidence. Their attacking rhythm — 38% of goals arriving in the final 15 minutes — suits a side that can hold its shape and punish visitors who struggle to close games out.

Form divergence

Chertanovo have collected eight points from their last five matches, with two victories, two draws and one defeat. They beat Zvezda Perm 1:0 away and Yenisey 3:2 at home, though the 1:2 loss to Lokomotiv Moscow showed they can still be caught on the counter. KR Reykjavik have managed just one point from five games — a 0:0 draw against Ryazan-VDW and four defeats, including a 1:4 hammering at Spartak Moscow and a 2:3 home loss to Dinamo Moskva. The visitors have scored five goals and conceded twelve in that span.

Head-to-head pattern

Chertanovo won 3:1 away in September 2024, 2:0 away in June 2025, and most recently 3:1 at KR Reykjavik in May 2026. KR Reykjavik's only wins came at home — 1:0 in November 2025 and 2:1 in April 2024.

Table context

Chertanovo sit seventh with 20 points from 16 matches — six wins, two draws, eight losses. KR Reykjavik are tenth with 11 points from the same number of games, two wins, five draws and nine defeats. That absence weighs heavier than the table position alone.

The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Chertanovo and 1.1 for KR Reykjavik. A 1:1 draw carries 12% probability, a 1:0 home win 11%, and a 2:1 victory 9%. Both teams to score sits at 53%, while three or more goals total are expected 49% of the time. Chertanovo's scoring pattern shows nothing in the opening 15 minutes, then steady output across the middle thirds before the late surge. KR Reykjavik's attack peaks in the 46-60 minute window at 30% of their total.

This conclusion stops holding if KR Reykjavik manage to score early and run the clock down. The visitors have shown they can grind out results — the 0:0 draw at Ryazan-VDW proves they can sit deep and absorb pressure. A draw suits them, and if they execute that game plan effectively, the home side's late-game dominance becomes irrelevant.