Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Comerciantes Unidos vs FC Cajamarca: match prediction on 28 August 2026
Comerciantes Unidos
FC Cajamarca
Prediction for
Win: Comerciantes Unidos
59%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
57%
1
25%
X
18%
2
Average bookmaker line (46)
1.61
1
3.72
X
5.13
2
Odds range
1.57 — 1.72
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 17:03- Комесиантес Унидос идёт 9-м: 21 очков после 17 матчей (5 побед, 6 ничьих, 6 поражений)
- Кахамарка идёт 15-м: 17 очков после 17 матчей (4 побед, 5 ничьих, 8 поражений)
- Последние 5 матчей Комесиантес Унидос: 2 побед, 1 ничьих, 2 поражений
- Последние 5 матчей Кахамарка: 1 побед, 0 ничьих, 4 поражений
- Очные встречи за последние годы: сыграно 1, побед Комесиантес Унидос — 1, ничьих 0, побед Кахамарка — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Comerciantes Unidos
WLWLD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
FC Cajamarca
WLLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 1
1Comerciantes Unidos
0Draw
0FC Cajamarca
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
46
bookmakers counted
1.61
Average bookmaker line
1.57 — 1.72
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 17:03I'm backing Comerciantes Unidos to win at 1.61, with 59% confidence. The hosts have been the stronger side in every measurable way — they beat FC Cajamarca 4-3 in March, they're four points clear in the table, and their recent form is simply better. Cajamarca have lost four of their last five and are struggling.
Comerciantes Unidos collected 7 points from their last 5 matches — 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. They beat UTC 3-1 away on 22 August and drew 2-2 with Alianza Lima at home. FC Cajamarca managed just 3 points in the same period: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses. Their only victory came away at FBC Melgar 4-2 on 9 August. Since then they've lost at home to Atletico Grau 1-3 and Universitario 2-3. The trajectory is clear — one team is finding results, the other isn't.
Head-to-head tells the story
There has been only 1 meeting between these sides in recent years. On 13 March 2026, FC Cajamarca hosted and lost 3-4 to Comerciantes Unidos. The away side scored 4 goals on the road — that's not a fluke result, it's proof of capability. The model expects Comerciantes to score 2.1 goals and Cajamarca 1.1. The probable scores line up with that: 2-1 at 10%, 1-1 at 10%, 2-0 at 9%. Three or more goals in the match are expected 62% of the time.
Line movement confirms pressure
The market opened with Comerciantes at 1.59 and they've drifted slightly to 1.61 — up 1.4%. That's not a sign of weakness; it's the market adjusting for the fact that 46 bookmakers are watching this fixture. The away win odds dropped from 5.31 to 5.14, down 3.3%, which suggests some money came in for FC Cajamarca, but not enough to move the needle. The draw stayed flat at 3.72 to 3.71. The market still prices a home win at 57% probability.
H. Rodriguez of Comerciantes has 10 yellow cards plus 1 red card and is one booking away from suspension. If he picks up a card, the hosts lose one of their key scorers — he's netted 3 goals in the last 6 months. FC Cajamarca are also racing toward suspensions: Jefferson Orejuela has 4 yellows and 1 red, Hairo Eduardo Timaná Alvarez has 2 yellows and 1 red. A red card for either side would rewrite the match entirely. That's the only real risk I see — a sudden dismissal, not a gradual decline.