Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Deportes Copiapó vs Magallanes CF: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Deportes Copiapó
Magallanes CF
Prediction for
Win: Deportes Copiapó
41%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
40%
1
28%
X
32%
2
Average bookmaker line (48)
2.27
1
3.31
X
2.83
2
Odds range
1.80 — 2.40
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 00:39- Депортес Копиапо — 10. place, 30 points after 23 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses)
- Магальянес — 5. place, 36 points after 23 games (10 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses)
- Депортес Копиапо, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Магальянес, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Депортес Копиапо — 5, 1 draws, Магальянес — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Deportes Copiapó
WLLLD
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Magallanes CF
WWLDD
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 11
5Deportes Copiapó
4Draw
2Magallanes CF
- 3 MayMagallanes CF — Deportes Copiapó2:3
- 19 Oct 2025Deportes Copiapó — Magallanes CF2:0
- 6 Jul 2025Magallanes CF — Deportes Copiapó0:1
- 8 Oct 2023Deportes Copiapó — Magallanes CF2:1
- 23 Apr 2023Magallanes CF — Deportes Copiapó0:2
Bookmaker market
48
bookmakers counted
2.27
Average bookmaker line
1.80 — 2.40
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 00:39Deportes Copiapó to win at 2.26, backed by their dominance in this fixture despite their own struggles. The home side has taken four points from every possible six in the last three meetings and the market has moved to reflect that — home odds shortened from 2.32 to 2.26 while Magallanes CF drifted from 2.75 to 2.85. This is not a blind faith in Copiapó's current form, which has yielded just one win from five matches, but a recognition that this pairing operates on different rules.
Magallanes CF sit five places above their opponents yet look vulnerable away from home. Their last five results — two wins, two draws, one loss — show resilience but not dominance. Copiapó's recent run is far worse: four defeats from five, conceding 12 goals while scoring just six. The 0:4 hammering at Antofagasta and the 0:4 loss at Deportes Iquique suggest a side in crisis.
The head-to-head record tells a story that contradicts the table. Over six meetings Copiapó won four, Magallanes CF one, with one draw. The last three encounters all went to the home side in each fixture, and Copiapó has not lost to Magallanes since October 2022. That pattern matters more than the six-point gap between them in the standings. Magallanes need points for playoff contention, but Copiapó have 11 matches left and can still climb — they are 6 points behind Magallanes but 10 points off the playoff places.
The model expects Copiapó to edge this, projecting 1.3 expected goals against 1.1 for Magallanes CF. A 1:1 draw carries 13% probability, a 1:0 home win 11%, and a 0:1 away victory 10%. The 27% draw probability is lower than the market suggests — bookmakers price a stalemate at 3.30, which implies roughly 28%. That slight mispricing, combined with Copiapó's historical superiority here, points toward the home side. Magallanes have conceded 38% of their goals in the first half, which could open opportunities early.
This holds only while the recent head-to-head pattern continues. If Magallanes CF adapt tactically or if Copiapó's defensive fragility — they conceded 31% of their goals in the final 15 minutes — becomes decisive, the match could shift. A draw suits Magallanes given their tendency to run games down, and that remains the main threat to this prediction.
Confidence: 65%