Deportes Temuco vs Deportes Puerto Montt: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Deportes Puerto Montt to win, 60% confidence.

Points gap and table position

Deportes Puerto Montt sit seventh with 31 points from 21 matches, nine wins, four draws, eight losses. Deportes Temuco are twelfth on 25 points, six wins, seven draws, eight defeats. The six-point margin gives the visitors breathing room, while the hosts press against the relegation zone.

Form comparison

Deportes Temuco's last five matches produced no wins, two draws, three losses—just two points from 15 available. They scored seven goals and conceded 13, including a 3-4 home defeat to Magallanes CF and a 1-4 loss at Deportes Copiapó. Deportes Puerto Montt collected one win, two draws, two losses for five points. Their 2-6 goal tally includes a 0-4 home loss to Deportes Iquique and a 0-1 defeat at Unión Española, but they secured a 1-0 away victory at Recoleta on 2 August.

Head-to-head record

Eight matches have been played between these sides in recent years. Deportes Temuco won three, Deportes Puerto Montt won three, and two ended level. The most recent Primera B meeting on 21 April 2026 saw Puerto Montt edge through 1-0 at home. Their last home fixture against each other ended 2-1 to Temuco in February 2026.

Model expectations

The model projects 1.4 goals for Deportes Temuco and 1.0 for Deportes Puerto Montt. The draw probability sits at 27%, both-teams-to-score at 48%, and three or more goals at 44%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 13%, 1:0 at 12%, and 0:1 at 9%. Deportes Temuco score heavily in the final quarter of matches—29% of their 21 goals arrive between 76 and 90 minutes—while Deportes Puerto Montt have conceded nothing in the 61-75 minute window but 29% of their total between 46 and 60.

Conditions that break the conclusion

A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat. If Deportes Puerto Montt take an early lead and play for time, the match could end level. The hosts have scored 33% of their goals in the first half, and an early strike would force the visitors to open up. A red card in the opening half would also change the dynamic completely, though neither side has shown consistent disciplinary issues beyond recent suspensions. Deportes Temuco face the prospect of missing M. Sanhueza, suspended after a red card on 23 August, while Camilo Alejandro Núñez Gómez sits one booking away from a ban. Deportes Puerto Montt could be without Alexis Amadeo Sabella, G. Castillo, and A. Morales, all likely suspended following red cards in the past three weeks.

Expected goals are not a prediction of the score but an average across many simulated versions of the match. If either side loses their primary striker through injury or suspension, the estimate shifts. Deportes Temuco's top scorer Diego Mario Buonanotte Rende has netted six goals this season, while Deportes Puerto Montt's Richard Nicolás Paredes Moraga leads with five. Their absence would alter the projection significantly.

Deportes Temuco average 49% possession and 6.4 shots on target per match compared to Puerto Montt's 47% and 3.6. The hosts generate more attacks at 138.9 per match versus 105.8, suggesting they will dominate territory. The visitors' efficiency in front of goal, particularly in away fixtures, remains their strength.

The kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 UTC on 30 August 2026.

The model's 44% probability for three or more goals suggests restraint. Deportes Puerto Montt's defensive record shows they concede heavily in the first half—35% of their total between 31 and 45 minutes—but tighten up after that. A narrow victory seems the most plausible outcome, provided both sides field their strongest available XI.