Ekranas Panevėžys vs Be1 NFA: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Be1 NFA to win. The gap between fourth and sixteenth in the 1 Lyga table is not a matter of form fluctuation — it is structural. Ekranas Panevėžys have taken 11 points from 21 matches. Be1 NFA have 38 from 20. The model puts Ekranas at 1.2 expected goals and Be1 NFA at 1.9. The service picked the visitors with 53% confidence, and the numbers back that up.

Ekranas are struggling to find consistency in attack and defence. Their last five matches produced one win, one draw and three defeats. They scored five goals and conceded 12. The timing data shows they are most dangerous between the 16th and 30th minute, accounting for 38% of their eight goals this season. But they also concede heavily in the second half — 29% of their 21 goals conceded come between the 61st and 75th minute, another 29% in the final 15. That pattern suggests they start games reasonably but fade under sustained pressure.

Be1 NFA's recent results look sharper on paper but hide some vulnerability. Two wins and three losses in five matches gives them six points, with five goals scored and nine conceded. They opened the scoring early in three of those games — 33% of their 12 goals conceded fall in the first 15 minutes. Yet they also have the firepower to respond. T. Gudaitis has five goals this season, the top scorer for the side. They won 2:0 at home against Garliava on 21 August and 2:1 against Hegelmann II four days later. Those victories came at home, and the away record is less convincing — they lost 1:3 to BFA and 0:3 to Minija in their last two road trips.

The head-to-head record shows a balanced history. Eight matches played, Ekranas won four, Be1 NFA three, one draw. But the most recent meetings tell a different story. Be1 NFA won 2:1 in April 2026 and 3:1 in September 2025. Ekranas managed only one win at home in May 2025 and another in the cup in May 2024. The visitors have taken the upper hand in the last two encounters. Ekranas are also playing at home, but their home form has been poor — they lost 0:5 to Minija in their last home game.

The model expects 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 as the most likely scores, each around 10%. Be1 NFA's attacking output — 4.4 shots on target per game over 10 matches — compares with Ekranas's 3.25. The visitors also average 53% possession against Ekranas's 51%. Those figures suggest Be1 NFA will control territory and create more clear-cut chances. Ekranas's reliance on the 16-30 minute window gives them a narrow opportunity to strike first, but their defensive fragility in the final 30 minutes works against them.

This prediction fails if Ekranas score early and hold on. Their 38% of goals coming between 16 and 30 minutes means they are capable of opening the scoring in that period. If they do, and Be1 NFA cannot respond — perhaps because of their own tendency to concede early — the match could drift into a stalemate. A 1:1 draw is the model's top score at 10%. Alternatively, if Be1 NFA's away record holds true and they struggle to break down a deep block, the visitors might settle for less than a win. The prediction assumes Be1 NFA can impose themselves over 90 minutes. Ekranas's 16 losses in 21 matches suggest they rarely do.