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Spišská Nová Ves
Podbrezová
Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
96%
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Génesis vs CD Marathon: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Génesis
CD Marathon
Prediction for
Win: CD Marathon
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
28%
1
29%
X
43%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:20- Женезис — 6. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Маратон — 3. place, 8 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Женезис, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Маратон, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 14 games, Женезис — 2, 3 draws, Маратон — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Génesis
WLWDL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
CD Marathon
WLDWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 14
2Génesis
3Draw
9CD Marathon
- 18 AprGénesis — CD Marathon0:1
- 27 FebCD Marathon — Génesis1:2
- 18 Oct 2025Génesis — CD Marathon0:3
- 9 Aug 2025CD Marathon — Génesis1:0
- 19 Apr 2025CD Marathon — Génesis0:0
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:20CD Marathon to edge a tight contest, 1:0 or 1:1.
The visitors carry an unbeaten record into this fixture — two wins and two draws from four matches — while Génesis have tasted defeat once. CD Marathon's defensive structure has been the foundation: they have conceded only 19 goals across ten matches compared to Génesis's 26. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for the visitors against 0.9 for the hosts, and the most likely scoreline sits at 0:1 with 14% probability.
Génesis have struggled to contain opposition attacks in the closing stages. They concede 31% of their goals after the 76th minute, a vulnerability that CD Marathon could exploit. The visitors score heavily in the middle third — 23% of their goals arrive between 46 and 60 minutes — but Génesis are particularly brittle at the death. Their recent form shows inconsistency: two wins, one draw, two losses across five fixtures, with a 7:5 goal record offering little comfort.
The head-to-head history reinforces the visitors' advantage. In fourteen meetings, CD Marathon have won nine times while Génesis have claimed only two victories. Three draws have split the remainder. The most recent encounter on 18 April 2026 ended 0:1 to CD Marathon, and before that Génesis lost 0:3 at home in October 2025. CD Marathon have won seven of the last ten meetings.
Génesis will be without D. Nunez and D. Rodriguez, both dismissed for red cards. CD Marathon face similar absences with K. Perez suspended and J. Fernandez carrying a recent red card from 8 August. That workload may show in the final quarter of an hour.
The model gives the draw a 29% probability and both teams to score at 42%. The three most probable outcomes cluster around low-scoring results: 0:1, 1:1, and 0:0. CD Marathon's ability to control possession — averaging 53% compared to Génesis's 47% — suggests they can dictate tempo when needed.
CD Marathon are projected to secure a narrow away victory or a stalemate. Génesis are predicted to protect their lead in the final twenty minutes, a period where they have historically surrendered goals at a rate of 31%.