Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow: match prediction on 1 September 2026
FC Rostov
CSKA Moscow
Prediction for
Win: CSKA Moscow
37%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
33%
1
27%
X
39%
2
Average bookmaker line (21)
2.78
1
3.39
X
2.34
2
Odds range
2.25 — 2.46
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 20:33- Ростов, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- ЦСКА Москва, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 13 games, Ростов — 2, 6 draws, ЦСКА Москва — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
FC Rostov
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
CSKA Moscow
LWDLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 18
2FC Rostov
7Draw
9CSKA Moscow
- 8 AugFC Rostov — CSKA Moscow0:0
- 21 AprCSKA Moscow — FC Rostov1:1
- 18 FebCSKA Moscow — FC Rostov3:1
- 14 Sep 2025FC Rostov — CSKA Moscow1:0
- 1 Jun 2025FC Rostov — CSKA Moscow0:0
Bookmaker market
21
bookmakers counted
2.34
Average bookmaker line
2.25 — 2.46
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 30 Aug, 20:33CSKA Moscow edge this cup tie on paper, but a draw is the most likely result. Recent meetings between these sides have been tight affairs, and both teams lost their last cup matches, so neither can afford to be careless.
The 0:0 draw with CSKA on 8 August showed they can compete, but losses to Krasnodar and Akhmat Grozny exposed defensive frailties. They scored three goals and conceded six across those five matches.
CSKA look steadier. Two wins and two draws in their last five games brought eight points. They beat Lokomotiv Moscow 3:2 at home and held Akron to a 2:2 draw away. Their attack has been more productive, netting six goals while conceding five. But the 0:1 cup defeat to Akron on 18 August suggests vulnerability in knockout situations.
The head-to-head record supports a tight contest. In 13 meetings over recent years, CSKA have five wins to Rostov's two, with six draws. The 0:0 on 8 August and the 1:1 at CSKA on 21 April show these games rarely open up.
Expected goals are identical at 1.2 for each side. The model sees 1:1 as the most likely score at 13%, followed by 0:1 and 1:0 on 11% each. Both teams to score sits at 49%, nearly even. Rostov's defensive weakness in the 31-45 minute period, where they concede 33% of their goals, could be crucial if CSKA find their rhythm.
A draw suits both teams. Rostov need to avoid another cup exit after their loss to Lokomotiv, while CSKA want to bounce back from the Akron defeat. The suspension risks add uncertainty—four Rostov players and four CSKA players are one booking away from bans. If either side loses key midfielders, the balance shifts.
If CSKA's away form continues to improve, or if Rostov's defensive issues in the first half intensify, the visitors could take all three points.
Outcome: Draw
Rostov's goal distribution shows they score most in the 31-45 (24%) and 46-60 (24%) periods. CSKA's attack peaks later, with 23% of goals coming in the 76-90 minute window. This mismatch in timing could prove decisive. If Rostov fall behind early, they may struggle to respond given their 19% of goals conceded in the opening 15 minutes.
Both teams have shown they can grind out results. Rostov's 1:0 win over Lokomotiv in the cup and CSKA's 1:0 victory against Fakel Voronezh demonstrate they can find solutions when needed. The cup context means motivation is high for both sides, but experience suggests these matches rarely produce clear winners.