Fratria — CSKA Sofia II: match prediction

Fratria's unbeaten run meets the league leaders

I'm backing Fratria to take a point at home against CSKA Sofia II. The model expects 1.6 goals from the hosts and 1.1 from the visitors, with a 25% chance of a draw. That fits with the probable scores: 1:1 at 12%, 1:0 at 11%, and 2:1 at 10%. Fratria have won four of their last five matches, scoring eight goals in the process, while CSKA Sofia II remain unbeaten in five but have drawn two of them. The visiting side sit top on 11 points, one ahead of Fratria on 10, but the home side's defensive record stands out — they've conceded just nine goals in ten matches at 0.9 per game compared to CSKA Sofia II's 1.5.

CSKA Sofia II have won three of four meetings, with only one draw in April 2026 when the sides played out a 2:2 stalemate at Fratria's ground. That result suggests the home side can compete, especially when they find their rhythm. Fratria score heavily between 31 and 45 minutes, accounting for 30% of their goals, and again from 61 to 75 where they bag 25%. CSKA Sofia II, by contrast, are most dangerous late — 36% of their 25 goals come after the 75th minute, with another 24% in the 16-30 window.

Fratria's recent form is compelling. They've won four straight league games now, including a 2:0 victory over Beroe at home and a 2:0 away win at Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. Their attack has been clinical, netting eight goals while keeping four clean sheets. CSKA Sofia II have been more cautious — three wins and two draws, with a 1:1 home draw against Ludogorets II on 25 August. They've scored 10 goals in five games but also conceded five, showing they're not as solid at the back as their position might suggest.

There's one player worth noting from CSKA Sofia II: Radoslav Zhivkov has scored one goal and picked up one yellow card in the last six months. Beyond that, no team news is available, so I'm working with what's known. Fratria average 6.9 shots on target per match and 54% possession, while CSKA Sofia II manage 6.1 shots on target with 52% possession. The numbers are close, which aligns with the model's expectation of a tight contest.

The 54% chance both teams score and 51% probability of three or more goals suggest an open game, but the individual score probabilities lean toward tight results. Fratria's ability to score in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows, combined with CSKA Sofia II's late-game threat, creates a scenario where either side could snatch a result. I'm backing Fratria to take a point.