Gimnasia Jujuy vs Agropecuario: match prediction on 1 September 2026

Gimnasia Jujuy to win at 1.750, with 59% confidence. The bookmakers have backed the hosts firmly, and the gap in the table tells the same story — a 16-point margin after 26 matches separates a side chasing promotion from one looking over its shoulder. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy 1.7 expected goals against Agropecuario's 0.8, and that spread points to a home victory rather than a cagey stalemate.

There is a clear hierarchy in Primera Nacional right now. Gimnasia Jujuy sit second with 45 points, while Agropecuario languish 15th on 29. That 16-point difference did not appear overnight; it accumulated over a full season of results. The hosts have won 13 matches and lost seven, while the visitors have managed only seven victories from the same number of games. The table does not lie, and it suggests that even a slight dip in form for Gimnasia Jujuy will not be enough to drop them out of the automatic promotion places.

History between these two sides reinforces the picture. In six meetings over recent years, Gimnasia Jujuy have won three times, drawn twice, and lost once. The most recent encounter on 12 April 2026 ended 2:1 to the visitors in their favour, but that was away from home. At their own ground, the pattern is different — a 1:0 win in September 2022 and a 1:1 draw in July 2024 are the other results at this venue. Agropecuario have not won here in seven years, and that record carries weight.

Form has taken divergent paths since August. Gimnasia Jujuy have won one, drawn one, and lost three of their last five matches, collecting just four points. Their last outing was a 3:3 draw away at Patronato, and before that a 1:0 home win over Chaco For Ever. The results have been inconsistent, but they have kept their position near the top. Agropecuario, meanwhile, have won three and lost two in the same period, scoring seven goals and conceding five. They are moving in the right direction, but the quality of opposition in those victories — including a 3:0 win over Club Atlético Güemes — does not match the level of Gimnasia Jujuy's schedule.

The model expects a narrow home victory. The most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 14%, followed by 2:0 at 12% and 1:1 at 11%. A draw is priced at 23%, and both teams scoring at 45%. The draw probability is low enough to suggest that one side will edge it rather than settle for a point. Gimnasia Jujuy score 34% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, which could prove decisive if Agropecuario, who concede 28% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute, begin to tire in the closing stages.

The prediction stops holding if Agropecuario find a way to exploit the early danger zones. Both sides have conceded a significant share of goals in the opening 15 minutes — 14% for Gimnasia Jujuy and 13% for Agropecuario. An early goal for the visitors would change the tempo entirely, forcing the hosts to chase the game and open up spaces. A draw suits Agropecuario's approach, and given how they tend to run the clock down in tight matches, that is the main threat to this conclusion.