Gremio vs Chapecoense: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Gremio win, 55% confidence

Gremio are set to edge this encounter at home, with their expected goals at 1.7 against Chapecoense's 0.9. The most likely scoreline sits at 1:0 (13%), followed by 2:0 (11%). The hosts have accumulated seven points from their last five matches, compared to Chapecoense's five, and carry a genuine advantage in attacking output.

Over that five-match span Gremio have won twice, drawn once and lost twice, scoring three goals while conceding five. Their run saw a 0:0 away to Internacional, a 0:1 loss at RB Bragantino, a 0:3 defeat to Atletico-MG, then back-to-back home victories — 2:1 over São Paulo FC and 1:0 against Mirassol. The hosts have already secured two results this month on their own turf.

Chapecoense sit 20th in the table with 14 points from 23 matches, a record of two wins, eight draws and 13 losses. Their last five yielded one victory, two draws and two defeats, with five goals scored and seven conceded. They beat São Paulo FC 1:0 at home on 23 August but have struggled on the road, losing 1:2 to Coritiba and 0:2 to Cruzeiro in cup competition.

The recent head-to-head does not favour Gremio. In two meetings this year they drew 1:1 at Chapecoense in March and lost 1:2 in a friendly in July. Across the past five encounters since 2021, Gremio have won just twice while Chapecoense have taken two victories and two matches have ended level. The visitors have not lost here in seven years, a fact that tempers expectations of a comfortable home result.

Expected goals figures suggest Gremio will dominate possession and create more chances. Their team statistics show 50% average possession and 4.0 shots on target per match, compared to Chapecoense's 39% and 2.7. Gremio also register 82 attacks per game against 70.5 for the visitors. The draw probability stands at 24%, with both teams to score at 48%.

A draw suits Chapecoense given how they run the clock down and their recent record at this venue. If the visitors absorb pressure and rely on set pieces — where they have been dominant in the air — the match could slip into a stalemate. The main threat to the home win lies in that scenario, particularly if Gremio fail to break through in the opening 30 minutes when they have scored just 16% of their goals.