HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka: match prediction on 31 August 2026

HNK Rijeka avoid defeat against Gorica, with the model pointing to a 71% probability when the 29% draw chance is added to their win likelihood. There are no grounds for a Gorica victory given their winless start to the season and Rijeka's dominance in recent meetings. Gorica's chances improve if they score in the opening 15 minutes, when their defensive vulnerability in that period—32% of goals conceded—could be exposed.

Gorica have not won any of their last five matches, losing all four league games so far this season. They have scored just two goals across those fixtures while conceding 11, with the most recent result a 0:2 defeat away to Slaven Belupo on 22 August. Their only bright spot has been scoring 30% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, but that comes too late to salvage results when they have already fallen behind.

HNK Rijeka's form has been more erratic. They have won two of their three league games but lost one, and their last five matches show one victory, one draw and three defeats. The 1:4 loss to FC Midtjylland at home in the Europa Conference League on 27 August was their heaviest result, while they did secure a 3:2 win against Istra 1961 at home on 23 August. They sit fifth with six points, having played one fewer match than Gorica.

The head-to-head record heavily favours HNK Rijeka. In 16 meetings over recent years, Gorica have won just twice with two draws, while Rijeka have claimed 12 victories. The most recent encounter ended 2:0 to Rijeka on 23 May, and before that Gorica did win 4:0 at home on 22 March. The model expects Gorica to score one goal and Rijeka 1.3, with the most likely scorelines being 0:1 at 14%, 1:1 at 13% and 0:0 at 11%. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 44%, while a match with three or more goals is expected 38% of the time.

Gorica's defensive frailties are evident in their goal distribution. They concede 32% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 21% between the 61st and 75th minute. HNK Rijeka, meanwhile, have conceded 29% of their goals in the final quarter of matches, which could work against them if Gorica find their late scoring rhythm. The visitors score 24% of their goals between the 46th and 60th minute and 24% in the last 15 minutes, showing they are dangerous in transitions and when pushing for results.

Gorica are not mounting a sustained challenge. They have not won a home game this season, losing 1:2 to Hajduk Split and 0:2 to Osijek, and their possession average of 46% suggests they operate on the counter rather than controlling matches. HNK Rijeka average 60% possession and take 5.5 shots on target per game compared to Gorica's 3.7. If Gorica score early, everything changes, but the data does not support that scenario.