HNK Gorica vs NK Varaždin: match prediction on 14 September 2026

We back NK Varaždin to win 1-0 or 2-1, 55% confidence.

NK Varaždin arrive in 2nd place with 13 points after six matches, while Gorica sit 10th with just 1 point. Varaždin have netted 9 goals in their last 5 games while conceding only 3, compared to Gorica's 4 for and 6 against.

Gorica won two of the last six meetings — a 1-3 cup victory in March 2026 and a 1-2 league win in January. But NK Varaždin claimed a 1-3 win at Gorica in October 2025, and the most recent fixture ended 1-1 in April. Of the last 17 meetings, Gorica have 4 wins, Varaždin 5, and 8 draws.

The model expects Gorica to score 0.9 goals and NK Varaždin 1.2. The most likely outcomes are 0:1 at 14%, 1:1 at 13%, and 0:0 at 12%. A draw probability of 30% sits alongside a 42% chance both teams score. The figures point to a tight, low-scoring match where one moment decides everything. Varaždin's 1.2 expected goals gives them the edge, but not by much.

Gorica's scoring pattern shows 37% of their goals come in the final 15 minutes, while 30% of their goals conceded arrive in the opening 15. NK Varaždin concede 32% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period and 25% between 46-60 minutes. Gorica’s late surge and Varaždin’s second-half leakiness suggest a tight contest decided by a set-piece or counter.

A draw suits Gorica. They need points badly and have shown they can compete, particularly at home where they drew 0-0 with Rijeka. If NK Varaždin struggle to break down a deep block, or if Gorica find a goal early and sit back, the visitors could be held. That is the main threat to this prediction.

Gorica's away form is poor — losses to Dinamo and NK Slaven Belupo, plus a cup win against Uskok Klis. Gorica at home are never easy to beat.

NK Varaždin take the three points, provided they are clinical. The model does not expect a high-scoring game, and Gorica's late-game threat means Varaždin cannot afford to relax. One goal could be enough, or it could be two. Either way, the visitors should come out on top — unless Gorica find a way to frustrate them for 90 minutes and hold firm.