Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars: match prediction on 4 September 2026
Homeboyz
Ulinzi Stars
Prediction for
Win: Homeboyz
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
48%
1
27%
X
25%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 13:18- Хомбойз, last 5 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses
- Улинзи Старс, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Хомбойз — 3, 4 draws, Улинзи Старс — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Homeboyz
LLLDD
2 draws · 3 losses
Ulinzi Stars
DLWWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 12
6Homeboyz
4Draw
2Ulinzi Stars
- 26 FebUlinzi Stars — Homeboyz1:1
- 25 Oct 2025Homeboyz — Ulinzi Stars3:1
- 9 Feb 2025Ulinzi Stars — Homeboyz0:0
- 14 Dec 2024Homeboyz — Ulinzi Stars1:1
- 10 Mar 2024Homeboyz — Ulinzi Stars2:0
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 13:18Homeboyz to avoid defeat against Ulinzi Stars
I see 65% confidence in a Homeboyz result. The hosts have not lost to Ulinzi at home in six years, and the model gives them the edge in expected goals. This conclusion stops holding if Ulinzi maintain their current away form — they have won two of their last three away matches, including a clean sheet at Posta Rangers FC.
Homeboyz arrive in poor shape. Their last five matches produced no wins, two draws and three losses — just two points from ten available. They scored four goals and conceded seven, with defeats to Gor Mahia, Murang'a SEAL and AFC Leopards among the results. The attack has struggled to find rhythm, and three of their last five matches ended with them failing to keep a clean sheet.
Ulinzi Stars carry momentum into this fixture. Three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five games yielded ten points. They beat Posta Rangers FC 1:0 away, Tusker 2:0 at home and Mathare United 2:1 at home. Their defensive record is tighter — only three goals conceded in five matches compared to Homeboyz's seven. The visitors have shown they can win away, taking points from both Posta and Shabana.
The head-to-head tells a different story. They have not lost to Ulinzi at home since November 2023, with two wins and one draw in their last three home meetings. The visitors have not won here in seven years, and the model reflects this with Homeboyz 1.4 expected goals against Ulinzi 1.0.
Goal timing adds nuance. Homeboyz score heavily in the opening fifteen minutes (24%) and the final fifteen (24%), but they also concede a third of their goals between minutes 16-30 and 31-45. Ulinzi are more consistent, with 33% of their goals arriving in each half. The model suggests a low-scoring affair — 1:0 and 1:1 each at 13% probability, with both teams to score at 47%.
A Homeboyz result depends on them matching Ulinzi's away resilience. If Ulinzi can replicate that discipline away from home, the home advantage evaporates. The draw probability sits at 27%, and given Ulinzi's recent away form, a stalemate is the main threat to the Homeboyz prediction.