Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
Read more
HPS Women vs Ilves: match prediction on 29 August 2026
HPS Women
Ilves
Prediction for
Win: HPS Women
49%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
49%
1
22%
X
29%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:33- ХПС Женщин — 4. place, 24 points after 14 games (7 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
- Ильвес — 5. place, 22 points after 14 games (7 wins, 1 draws, 6 losses)
- ХПС Женщин, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Ильвес, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, ХПС Женщин — 3, 1 draws, Ильвес — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
HPS Women
LWLDW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Ilves
WWLLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 12
4HPS Women
1Draw
7Ilves
- 25 JulHPS Women — Ilves1:2
- 22 MayIlves — HPS Women1:0
- 31 Aug 2024HPS Women — Ilves1:0
- 9 Jun 2024Ilves — HPS Women0:2
- 26 Aug 2023Ilves — HPS Women0:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 28 Aug, 12:33I'm backing HPS Women to edge this one, and the main reason sits in the points table. The model puts them at 2 expected goals to 1.5, which lines up with a narrow home win rather than a rout.
Points gap and pressure
Four points separates fourth from fifth, and that matters when two rounds remain. That balance of risk tends to make the home side more willing to press early.
Recent form tells a different story
Ilves have won two of five, but both victories came against KuPS Women — one away 4:2, one away 2:1. Their other three results were heavy defeats: 1:3 at home to HJK, 0:3 away to Åland United, and 1:2 away to KuPS Women. HPS Women have been steadier in attack, scoring 8 goals in 5 matches compared to Ilves' 8 as well, but they've conceded more — 13 versus 11. The 3:3 draw against HJK shows they can find the net, and the 3:2 win over KuPS Women at home proves they can grind out results when needed.
Head-to-head pattern
Over six meetings, HPS Women have won 3, Ilves 2, with 1 draw. The last two clashes were both away for Ilves, and they won both — 2:1 in July and 1:0 in May. The pattern suggests Ilves can win on the road, but HPS Women hold the edge at their own ground.
Model expectations
The model puts a 22% chance on a draw and 67% on both teams scoring. Three or more goals are expected in 68% of scenarios. The most likely scores are 1:1 and 2:1 at 9% each, followed by 1:2 at 7%. Those numbers point to a tight game with goals from both sides, but a home advantage tipping the balance.