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Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Jaguares de Chiapas vs Racing Porto Palmeiras: match prediction on 29 September 2026
Jaguares de Chiapas
Racing Porto Palmeiras
Prediction for
Win: Racing Porto Palmeiras
52%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
28%
1
25%
X
48%
2
Average bookmaker line (3)
3.25
1
3.70
X
1.91
2
Odds range
1.91 — 1.91
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 02:15- Хагуарес де Чьяпас — 11. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Рейсинг Порту Палмейрас — 2. place, 10 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Хагуарес де Чьяпас, last 5 games: 1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses
- Рейсинг Порту Палмейрас, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Хагуарес де Чьяпас — 0, 1 draws, Рейсинг Порту Палмейрас — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Jaguares de Chiapas
DWDLD
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Racing Porto Palmeiras
WWWDD
3 wins · 2 draws
Head to head 2
0Jaguares de Chiapas
1Draw
1Racing Porto Palmeiras
- 22 MarRacing Porto Palmeiras — Jaguares de Chiapas2:0
- 9 Nov 2025Jaguares de Chiapas — Racing Porto Palmeiras1:1
Bookmaker market
3
bookmakers counted
1.91
Average bookmaker line
1.91 — 1.91
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 02:15Racing Porto Palmeiras to win at 1.91, with confidence at 52%. The line has moved decisively towards the visitors since opening at 2.06 on 28 September, and the movement tracks their form advantage — three wins in their last four matches compared to Jaguares de Chiapas' single victory in three outings.
Form gap
Racing Porto Palmeiras sit third on 10 points from four games, undefeated in the Primera Premier this season. Jaguares de Chiapas occupy eleventh place with just 3 points from three matches, carrying two defeats into this fixture. The visitors have scored 15 goals across their last five games while the hosts have managed only 4, a difference that shows in the model's expected goals of 1.7 versus 1.0.
Timing patterns
Jaguares de Chiapas have conceded 36 per cent of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, a vulnerability Racing Porto Palmeiras have not exploited heavily yet — the visitors have conceded just 3 goals all season, with two-thirds arriving in the opening 15 minutes. Jaguares de Chiapas are more dangerous between the 16th and 30th minute, accounting for 43 per cent of their 14 goals, while Racing Porto Palmeiras concentrate their output in the 46th to 60th minute at 40 per cent.
Head-to-head
The two sides have met twice in the last year. Racing Porto Palmeiras won 2:0 away in March, and the return ended 1:1 at Jaguares de Chiapas' ground in November. The visitors have not lost either encounter, and the model's most likely scoreline of 1:1 at 13 per cent probability reflects that pattern of tight matches.
When the prediction fails
A draw suits the visitors — they have not lost a match this season and their defensive record of 3 goals conceded in 4 games is strong. If Racing Porto Palmeiras control the tempo and run the clock down, the 27 per cent draw probability becomes the more likely outcome, and the away win prediction stops holding.