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Juventud Unida — Mercedes: match prediction
Juventud Unida
Mercedes
Prediction for
Win: Juventud Unida
37%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
40%
1
31%
X
29%
2
Average bookmaker line (26)
2.21
1
2.92
X
3.10
2
Odds range
2.05 — 2.30
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:47- Хувентуд Унида — 8. place, 35 points after 25 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses)
- Мерседес — 6. place, 36 points after 25 games (9 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses)
- Хувентуд Унида, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Мерседес, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Хувентуд Унида — 4, 2 draws, Мерседес — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Juventud Unida
DWLWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Mercedes
DLLWL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 7
5Juventud Unida
2Draw
0Mercedes
- 3 MayMercedes — Juventud Unida1:1
- 1 Jun 2024Mercedes — Juventud Unida0:0
- 28 Nov 2023Mercedes — Juventud Unida0:4
- 21 Aug 2023Juventud Unida — Mercedes3:1
- 15 Apr 2023Juventud Unida — Mercedes2:1
Bookmaker market
26
bookmakers counted
2.21
Average bookmaker line
2.05 — 2.30
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:47Juventud Unida to win at 2.21, a call backed by their head-to-head record and slightly better recent form. The model puts their probability of victory at 40%, which is higher than the market's 29% for Mercedes and 31% for a draw. Confidence sits at 37%.
Juventud Unida collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning three and losing only once. Mercedes managed 7 points from the same period, with two defeats in the mix. The hosts drew at home against Puerto Nuevo and won away at Claypole 2:0, while the visitors lost 1:0 at Claypole and 2:0 away to Argentino Rosario. Juventud scored 7 goals in that run and conceded 4; Mercedes scored 4 and conceded 4.
In six meetings over recent years Juventud Unida won four and drew twice, with Mercedes failing to take a single victory. The most recent encounter ended 1:1 at Mercedes' ground in May 2026, but before that Juventud won 4:0 away in November 2023 and 3:1 at home in August 2023. The pattern is clear.
Mercedes sit 6th with 36 points, one ahead of Juventud Unida in 8th with 35. The gap is narrow, but the model expects 1 goal from the hosts and 0.9 from the visitors, with a 16% chance of a goalless draw and 15% for a 1:0 home win. The odds have not moved since opening at 2.21 for Juventud, 2.91 for a draw, and 3.10 for Mercedes.
A draw suits the visitors, and given how they tend to slow the tempo away from home, that is the main threat to this prediction. If the match ends level, the conclusion does not hold.