Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Kagera Sugar vs Azam: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Kagera Sugar
Azam
Prediction for
Win: Azam
61%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
15%
1
23%
X
61%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 18:38- Кагера Сагэр — 16. place, 1 points after 4 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses)
- Азам — 4. place, 8 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- Кагера Сагэр, last 5 games: 0 wins, 1 draws, 4 losses
- Азам, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 5 games, Кагера Сагэр — 0, 1 draws, Азам — 4
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Kagera Sugar
LDLLL
1 draw · 4 losses
Azam
WWDWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 10
1Kagera Sugar
2Draw
7Azam
- 19 Apr 2025Kagera Sugar — Azam2:4
- 23 Nov 2024Azam — Kagera Sugar1:0
- 25 May 2024Azam — Kagera Sugar5:1
- 21 Dec 2023Kagera Sugar — Azam0:4
- 16 Dec 2022Kagera Sugar — Azam2:2
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 18:38Azam are the clear favourites for this encounter and I see them taking all three points. The gap between them is not narrow — eight points after four matches against one, and Azam have not lost in six meetings going back to 2022. Kagera Sugar's record of zero wins in that span tells the story before a ball is kicked.
Kagera Sugar have managed just one point from their opening four fixtures. They lost 2-6 away to Geita Gold and 1-2 at Mashujaa, while the only bright spot was a 1-1 home draw against Singida Fountain Gate. They conceded 12 goals in five matches, with 47% of those coming in the 61-75 minute window. Their attacking output is equally concerning — five goals in five games, with none arriving between the 16th and 60th minute.
Azam look a different proposition entirely. Three wins and two draws from five matches means they sit unbeaten with 11 points. They beat Pamba Jiji 2-1 and Kitayosce 2-1 at home, drew 2-2 away at Geita Gold and 1-1 away at Polisi Tanzania. They have scored nine goals while conceding five, and their distribution is far more balanced — 29% of their goals arrive in the 61-75 minute period, 23% in the 46-60 minute block.
The head-to-head record reinforces the imbalance. Azam have won four of the last six meetings, with two draws. The most recent encounter on 19 April 2025 ended 2-4 to Azam, while the fixture at this venue on 21 December 2023 saw Kagera Sugar lose 0-4.
In the table the positions reflect the gulf. Azam sit fourth with eight points from four games, while Kagera Sugar languish at the bottom with one point. The model expects Azam to score 1.7 goals and Kagera Sugar 0.7, with the most probable scoreline 0-1 at 15%. A draw carries 23% probability and both teams scoring 42%. The three most likely results are 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1.
If they can hold Azam to a draw and then find a late winner, the model's expectations shift. A draw suits Azam's approach to running the clock down, but an early goal from Kagera Sugar would change everything.