Kortrijk vs Charleroi: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Charleroi avoid defeat in Kortrijk. The visitors have won all three games so far, while Kortrijk have lost both matches they have played. The model puts the draw at 27%, but the pattern of results points to a result that keeps Charleroi's perfect record intact.

Kortrijk's form offers little comfort. They have taken only four points from five matches this season, scoring three and conceding nine. Two of those losses came by the same scoreline — 0:3 against Antwerp and Club Brugge. The defensive record has been poor, with 41% of goals conceded coming in the 61-75 minute period. Charleroi, meanwhile, have won four of their last five games, scoring ten and conceding five. They sit second with nine points from three matches.

The most recent encounter on 26 December 2024 ended 0:1 to Charleroi at Kortrijk's ground. In the five matches since 2023, Kortrijk have won only one game, and that was a narrow 1:0 victory in February 2024. The pattern of results suggests Charleroi know how to manage this fixture.

The model expects Kortrijk to score one goal and Charleroi 1.4. The most likely outcomes are 1:1 at 13%, 0:1 at 12%, and 1:0 at 9%. Both teams to score sits at 49%, which is close to even. Charleroi's attacking options include Antoine Rudy Bernier and Aurélien Scheidler, both with four goals in the last six months. Kortrijk's top scorers are on two goals each, which suggests a less potent attack.

This prediction stops working if Kortrijk find a way to exploit Charleroi's vulnerability in the final quarter. Charleroi have conceded 29% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period, which is the highest share for either team. If Kortrijk can stay in the game and push forward late, they could take points from a side that has not yet shown weakness in closing out matches. A red card for Charleroi in the first half would also change the dynamic entirely.