Kuressaare vs Vaprus: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Vaprus are slight favourites to edge this encounter on Sunday, and the model's 1.6 expected goals for the visitors against Kuressaare's 1.3 supports that reading. Vaprus sit 7th with 27 points after 23 games, three clear of Kuressaare's 9th-place tally of 24 points from one more fixture. Both sides have been uneven lately, but Vaprus' away record in this fixture carries weight.

Kuressaare have won three of five, including an 8-0 cup demolition of Kristiine JK, yet they also dropped points in two defeats — 0-1 away to Tammeka and 0-1 away to Paide. Their attack has been productive, netting 14 goals in that span, but conceding six raises questions about defensive stability. Vaprus managed two wins and a draw in five, scoring 12 and conceding seven. They beat Phoenix 5-0 in the cup but lost 1-2 at home to Flora and 1-3 away to Kalju Nõmme. Neither side has found consistency, but Vaprus have been slightly more resilient in league matches.

Over 17 meetings, Vaprus have won nine, Kuressaare six, with two draws. The most recent league encounters went Vaprus' way: a 1-0 win at home on 26 June 2026, followed by a 1-0 victory away in April. Those results suggest Vaprus have found a formula against Kuressaare recently. Kuressaare did win 2-1 at home in July 2025, but the pattern has shifted.

The expected goals figures — 1.3 for Kuressaare, 1.6 for Vaprus — point to a low-scoring affair. The model gives a 24% chance of a draw and 59% that both teams score. The three most likely outcomes are 1-1 at 11%, 1-2 at 9%, and 0-1 at 9%. Kuressaare average 4.11 shots on target per match compared to Vaprus' 2.43, but both teams share 41% possession. Kuressaare are more direct, Vaprus more cautious.

Vaprus are backed to take something from this match, but only if their defensive structure holds. Kuressaare score heavily in the final 15 minutes — 26% of their goals come after the 75th minute — and if they push for a result, they could exploit Vaprus' vulnerability in the 46-60 minute block, where the visitors have conceded 42% of their goals. A quick goal for Kuressaare would shift momentum entirely. Confidence in Vaprus not losing stands at 62%, but that confidence evaporates if they concede early or if Kuressaare's attacking full-backs find space behind Vaprus' midfield.