Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Leones del Norte vs Orense SC: match prediction on 3 September 2026
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
Prediction for
Win: Leones del Norte
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
49%
1
29%
X
22%
2
Average bookmaker line (44)
1.87
1
3.17
X
4.11
2
Odds range
1.73 — 2.16
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 22:44- Леонес дель Нортэ — 10. place, 35 points after 27 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses)
- Оренсе — 13. place, 30 points after 27 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 13 losses)
- Леонес дель Нортэ, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Оренсе, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Леонес дель Нортэ — 1, Оренсе — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Leones del Norte
WLLWD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Orense SC
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 2
1Leones del Norte
0Draw
1Orense SC
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
44
bookmakers counted
1.87
Average bookmaker line
1.73 — 2.16
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 22:44Leones del Norte to win at 2.02 odds. The bookmakers have priced this match without moving a single point since opening, and the model backs the home side with a 45% probability. Both teams arrive with identical records in their last five games — one win, one draw, three defeats — yet Leones hold a five-point cushion over Orense SC and carry the advantage of playing at home.
Leones del Norte collected four points from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding nine. Their recent form includes a 1:2 away loss to Emelec and a 2:0 away win at Manta. Orense SC matched that tally exactly — one victory, one stalemate, three losses — with four goals scored and nine conceded across the same span. Their recent fixtures include a 1:2 home loss to Macará and a 0:3 away defeat at Barcelona SC.
The two sides have met twice in recent years, each claiming one victory. Orense SC won 2:0 at home in the Liga Pro on 09.05.2026, while Leones del Norte responded with a 1:0 home win in the Copa Ecuador on 22.08.2025.
Leones del Norte sit tenth on 35 points from 27 matches, while Orense SC occupy thirteenth place with 30 points.
The statistical model projects Leones del Norte to score 1.4 goals and Orense SC to score 1.0. The most likely outcomes cluster around tight scorelines — 1:0 at 13%, 1:1 at 13%, and 0:0 at 10%. The draw probability stands at 27%, with both teams to score at 46% and three or more goals at 41%. Leones del Norte have scored 21% of their goals between the 16th and 30th minute, while Orense have found the net most frequently between the 31st and 45th minute at 24%.
A draw would suit Orense SC given how they tend to manage games when protecting a result — they have conceded 22% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, suggesting they sometimes struggle to maintain intensity. If Orense take an early lead and adopt a defensive posture, the model's expectation of a home victory loses its foundation. The odds have not shifted, which tells us nothing new has emerged in team news or conditions, but an unexpected event in the opening half could still alter the trajectory of this match.