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Bulacan Kuyas
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Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
67%
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Lillestrøm vs Fredrikstad: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Lillestrøm
Fredrikstad
Prediction for
Win: Lillestrøm
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
57%
1
23%
X
21%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00- Лиллестрём — 5. place, 26 points after 17 games (8 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses)
- Фредрикстад — 8. place, 23 points after 17 games (7 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses)
- Лиллестрём, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Фредрикстад, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Лиллестрём — 2, 2 draws, Фредрикстад — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Lillestrøm
DWLWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Fredrikstad
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 8
2Lillestrøm
3Draw
3Fredrikstad
- 11 JulFredrikstad — Lillestrøm0:2
- 31 JanLillestrøm — Fredrikstad2:2
- 21 May 2025Lillestrøm — Fredrikstad1:1
- 22 Mar 2025Fredrikstad — Lillestrøm1:0
- 20 Oct 2024Fredrikstad — Lillestrøm2:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00The momentum gap
Lillestrøm's last five results read one win, two draws, two losses, yielding five points from a possible fifteen. They beat Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2:1 at home in the Europa League on 27 August but have lost to Rosenborg BK 0:2 and Bodø/Glimt 4:0 in the league. Their attack has been toothless, scoring only three goals while conceding eight. Fredrikstad, by contrast, have netted ten goals in five games, including a 7:1 victory over Eidsvold IF in the NM Cupen on 22 August. They have kept three clean sheets on the spin in league action, winning 1:0 at Kristiansund BK, 1:0 away at Start, and 1:0 at home against Sandefjord.
Head-to-head context
The last seven meetings have produced two wins for Lillestrøm, two draws, and three for Fredrikstad. Lillestrøm lost 0:3 away in May 2024. The pattern suggests neither side dominates outright, though Fredrikstad's recent away form has been stronger.
What the model sees
The simulation gives Lillestrøm 1.8 expected goals and Fredrikstad 1.0, with a 23% probability of a draw and 54% that both teams score. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1 (11%), 1:0 to Lillestrøm (11%), and 2:1 to Lillestrøm (10%). Fredrikstad's attacking distribution is even across all periods, while Lillestrøm score heavily after the break, with 23% of their goals falling in each of the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute windows. Lillestrøm concede 27% of their goals in the final quarter of an hour and 23% between 31 and 45 minutes.
Key scenario
If Lillestrøm find their front men in the opening fifteen minutes—where Fredrikstad have conceded 30% of their goals—the home side could seize control early and exploit their higher expected goals figure. The conclusion does not hold if the match ends level.
There are no grounds for a comfortable home win. Fredrikstad's form has been too consistent, and Lillestrøm's defensive frailties, particularly in the final twenty minutes, make a narrow away victory the most probable outcome.
Outcome: Fredrikstad win. Confidence: 55%.