Cup
Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
96%
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Lyseng
AC Horsens
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (32)
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 1 Sep, 08:47AC Horsens are overwhelming favourites against lower-tier Lyseng. The bookmakers have priced the visitors at 1.09 across 17 firms, a figure that reflects a clear hierarchy between a Superliga side and a lower-tier outfit. The line has not moved since opening on 31 August, and the gap between the two probabilities remains the most reliable signal available.
Lyseng have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning three, drawing once and losing once. Their goal record shows 10 scored and 11 conceded. They beat Vejgaard B 3:2 at home on 4 August and won 2:1 against Brabrand in a friendly in February. The results are mixed, but the quality of opposition in the cup competitions is not at the level AC Horsens face in the top flight.
AC Horsens have won two of their last five Superliga matches and lost three, accumulating 6 points with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. They lost 2:3 at home to Viborg on 28 August, beat Lyngby 2:1 at home on 23 August, won 2:1 away at Odense on 16 August, lost 0:2 at home to Brondby on 9 August, and lost 1:2 away at FC Midtjylland on 2 August. The visitors are not in freefall, but they are also not building momentum. What matters more is the gap in class between the two sides.
The odds tell the same story. AC Horsens at 1.09 means the market sees them as overwhelming favourites. Lyseng are priced at 16.57. The draw is priced at 8.66. The visitors have nothing to lose and everything to gain from a win, while the home side would need a miracle to overturn such a gap.
AC Horsens score most of their goals in the 31st to 45th minute, accounting for 23% of their 13 goals. They also concede heavily in that same window, taking 42% of their 19 goals against. This pattern suggests they can be vulnerable late in the half, but against a side like Lyseng, who have only one match in the database, that vulnerability may not be exploited. The visitors are the stronger side, and strength usually prevails in cup ties unless something unexpected happens.
The prediction fails if Lyseng score early and AC Horsens are forced to chase the game. The visitors concede 16% of goals in the opening 15 minutes, and if they fall behind, their tendency to open up could work against them. A draw suits the visitors in some scenarios, but given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.