Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Minsk II vs Niva: match prediction on 4 September 2026
Minsk II
Niva
Prediction for
Win: Niva
60%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
20%
1
19%
X
60%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 14:42- Минск II — 11. place, 29 points after 22 games (9 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses)
- Нива — 1. place, 45 points after 22 games (14 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses)
- Минск II, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Нива, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Минск II — 0, 1 draws, Нива — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Minsk II
LWDLL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Niva
WWLWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 3
0Minsk II
1Draw
2Niva
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 2 Sep, 14:42Niva win, 65% confidence. The gap between the sides is 16 points after 22 matches, and Niva's recent form—four wins and one loss in their last five—makes them the clear favourite. Minsk II sit 11th with 29 points, a side that has won nine, drawn twice and lost eleven times this season. The model expects 1.3 goals for the hosts and 2.3 for Niva, with the most likely scoreline 1:2 at 9%.
FC Minsk II have taken seven points from their last five matches: two wins, one draw and two losses. They scored nine goals and conceded six across that run. Their attacking output has been uneven—they netted four against Dinamo Minsk II on 16 August but failed to score at all against FC Slutsk two days later. The side concedes heavily in the final quarter of an hour, with 37% of their goals against coming between the 76th and 90th minutes.
Niva have been far more consistent. They won four of their last five matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding seven. Their 6:0 victory over Osipovichy on 30 August showed their attacking ceiling, while their away defeat to Lida 3:2 was their only loss in that period. The visitors have been particularly sharp in the opening 15 minutes, accounting for 25% of all their goals in that window.
The head-to-head record does not favour FC Minsk II. In three meetings over the past year, Niva have won twice and drawn once. The most recent encounter on 10 May 2026 ended 3:1 to Niva at home. Minsk II have not recorded a victory against them in that timeframe.
The statistical model points toward a narrow away win. Both teams to score carries a 66% probability, while over three goals sits at 71%. The three most probable scorelines are 1:2, 1:1 and 1:3. Niva's attack has been prolific—D. Fedortsov has 11 goals and D. Galuza 8 in the last six months—while FC Minsk II's defence has conceded in 11 of their 22 matches.
A draw would overturn this prediction. Niva have shown they can manage games, but they have not kept a clean sheet in every match and their away form includes that 3:2 loss to Lida. If FC Minsk II start strongly and take an early lead, the visitors may be forced to chase the game and expose themselves. The model does not account for injuries or suspensions beyond what is known.
Niva to win — confidence 65%