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Spišská Nová Ves
Podbrezová
Prediction for Spišská Nová Ves — Podbrezová
96%
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Monza vs Udinese: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Monza
Udinese
Prediction for
Win: Udinese
46%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
30%
1
30%
X
40%
2
Average bookmaker line (39)
3.13
1
3.14
X
2.39
2
Odds range
2.25 — 2.47
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:03- Монца — 19. place, 0 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 losses)
- Удинезе — 11. place, 1 points after 1 games (0 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Монца, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Удинезе, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Монца — 2, 3 draws, Удинезе — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Monza
DWLLW
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Udinese
WWDWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 7
2Monza
3Draw
2Udinese
- 11 May 2025Udinese — Monza1:2
- 9 Dec 2024Monza — Udinese1:2
- 3 Feb 2024Udinese — Monza0:0
- 29 Oct 2023Monza — Udinese1:1
- 8 Apr 2023Udinese — Monza2:2
Bookmaker market
39
bookmakers counted
2.39
Average bookmaker line
2.25 — 2.47
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:03I'm backing Udinese to edge this at 2.39. The visitors have shown more control in their opening match and carry better momentum into this fixture. Monza's heavy 4-1 defeat to Inter leaves them looking for answers, while Udinese's 1-1 draw with Como suggests they're settling into Serie A rhythm.
Opening Round Contrast
Monza's season started badly with a 1-4 loss away at Inter. They were outplayed for 90 minutes and now face pressure to respond. Udinese managed a point against Como at home—no easy task—and their defensive organisation looked solid. Monza need to bounce back; Udinese can build on what they've done.
Recent Patterns
Looking at the last five matches before this fixture, Udinese collected 10 points from 3 wins and a draw. Monza gathered just 7 points from 2 wins and a draw. The quality of opponents differs—Udinese faced Barcelona and Nottingham Forest in friendlies—but the consistency is clear. Udinese kept clean sheets in three of their five matches, including victories over Barcelona and Nottingham Forest on the same day.
Head-to-Head Record
These sides have met six times recently. Monza won two, Udinese one, and three ended level. The most recent meeting saw Monza win 2-1 away at Udinese in May 2025, but before that Udinese triumphed 2-1 at Monza in December 2024. Three of the last six matches produced under 3 goals.
Model and Market Alignment
The model expects Monza to score 1.1 goals and Udinese 1.5, pointing toward a narrow away victory. The market agrees—Udinese at 2.39 represents 40% probability after removing the margin. The draw sits at 3.14 with 30%, and Monza's home win at 3.13 also carries 30%. The line hasn't moved since opening, suggesting no new information has shifted sentiment.
When This Breaks
This prediction relies on Udinese maintaining their defensive structure. If Monza's attack clicks early—particularly in the first 15 minutes where they've scored 10% of their goals historically—home pressure could change the dynamic. The model doesn't account for squad changes or tactical adjustments, so any significant personnel shift would require reassessment.
My view is Udinese 2.39. The visitors have better form, stronger recent results, and the market prices them as favourites for a reason. Monza must overcome a heavy opening defeat while Udinese can play with confidence.