Nõmme United vs Vaprus: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Vaprus are favourites to win this cup tie. The model expects them to score 2.0 goals while Nõmme United manage 1.5, and the most likely scoreline is 1:2 at 9%. A draw accounts for only 22% of outcomes, and both sides scoring sits at 67%. Vaprus arrive with five points from their last five matches compared to Nõmme's three, and their away form includes a 5:0 victory over Phoenix in August.

Nõmme United's recent run has been difficult. They have lost four of their last five games, conceding 12 goals while scoring just four. Vaprus showed more resilience with two draws and only two losses, including a 2:2 draw at Kuressaare and a 1:1 at home to FC Levadia.

The head-to-head record is evenly balanced. Nõmme United won 3:2 away to Vaprus in May 2026 and 7:1 at home in March 2026. Vaprus responded with a 7:0 friendly victory in February 2025 and Meistriliiga wins of 2:0 and 2:0 in 2024.

Goal timing patterns reveal different vulnerabilities. Nõmme United concede heavily in the opening half, with 26% of goals against them arriving between 16 and 30 minutes. Vaprus are weakest after the break, conceding 35% of their goals in the 46-60 minute period. Nõmme United score most frequently in the 46-60 minute window at 25%, while Vaprus have their highest concentration in the 16-30 minute period at 26%.

This conclusion stops holding if Nõmme United score early and protect their lead. Vaprus have conceded 11% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 11% between 16 and 30 minutes. If they fall behind before the 45th minute, they will need to open up, and Nõmme United have scored 22% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. A draw would suit the visitors given their tendency to run the clock down, and that remains the main threat to the away win.