Orsomarso vs Depor FC: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Orsomarso win. The home side's head-to-head dominance and Depor FC's defensive frailties outweigh the visitors' recent upturn.

Depor FC FC have turned a corner in the last five matches, picking up 10 points from three wins. They beat Internacional Palmira 1:0 away, Leones FC 3:0 away, and Bogota FC 2:1 at home. That run has them scoring eight goals while conceding five. Orsomarso, by contrast, have managed just one win in that same window, taking five points from a 1-2-2 record. They lost 0:2 at home to Tigres FC and 0:1 to Real Cartagena, with only a 2:0 victory over Real Soacha to show for their efforts.

The historical picture favours Orsomarso. In seven meetings over recent years they have won four, drawn two and lost once. The most recent encounter on 11 March 2026 ended 1:1 at Depor FC's ground. Before that, Depor edged 1:0 in August 2025. Orsomarso have kept Depor from winning at home in three of the last four visits, with two draws and a 1:0 victory on 31 August 2024.

Orsomarso's scoring pattern shows concentration in the middle periods. They score 36% of their 14 goals between the 46th and 60th minute and 29% between the 61st and 75th. Depor FC are vulnerable in the 31st to 45th minute block, where 30% of their 27 conceded goals fall. The model expects Orsomarso to score 1.3 goals and Depor 0.8, with a 29% probability of a draw and 39% that both teams find the net.

There are disciplinary concerns on both sides. Orsomarso's M. Lasso received a red card on 10 September and faces a potential suspension. S. Agames sits on three yellow cards, one booking from a ban. Depor FC's J. Julio is in the same position with three yellows. Neither situation is confirmed for this fixture, but the risk exists.

The conclusion holds while Depor FC maintain their current defensive structure. A draw suits the visitors given how they run matches, and that is the main threat. If Depor score early and close the game out, the model's 1:0 prediction for Orsomarso breaks down. The home side's record of not conceding in the 61st to 75th minute block—just 5% of goals against them—could also be disrupted if Depor find their rhythm in the opening 15 minutes, where they have hit 25% of their goals.