Pakhtakor Ii vs Shortan: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Shortan win — 65% confidence. The gap between third and twelfth speaks for itself, and Shortan's away record shows they can take points from anyone. Pakhtakor Ii have lost 15 of 19 matches and sit on the edge of the drop zone.

Their last five outings produced three victories and two defeats, with nine goals scored and five conceded.

Pakhtakor Ii occupy 12th place with just 10 points — three wins, one draw, 15 defeats. Their recent run mirrors the season's pattern: two wins and three losses across five matches. They beat Qiziriq 3:0 at home and Lochin 2:1 on their patch, but lost 0:2 away to Jayxun and 0:1 to Metalourg on the road. Five goals scored, six conceded — the sort of numbers that keep a side hovering near the bottom.

The only recorded meeting between these sides came on 05.05.2026, when Shortan won 2:0 at home. The model expects a similar pattern today: Pakhtakor Ii 0.6 expected goals, Shortan 2.2. The most likely scorelines are 0:2 at 15%, 0:1 at 14%, and 0:3 at 11%. The draw probability sits at 17%.

Shortan's timing tells a story. They score 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, and Pakhtakor Ii concede 50% of their goals in that same window. That is not a coincidence — it is a vulnerability that Shortan's attack has learned to exploit. Pakhtakor II also struggle in the middle periods, conceding 15% of goals between 46 and 60 minutes.

A draw would suit Pakhtakor Ii, and given how they tend to sit deep and absorb pressure, that is the main risk. If they can park the bus, then the model's prediction softens. A red card would change everything, but that is a general football risk, not one specific to this pairing.

Shortan take the three points.