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Polessya vs Hirnyk: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Polessya
Hirnyk
Prediction for
Win: Polessya
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
58%
1
21%
X
20%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:29- Полесье — 1. place, 15 points after 6 games (5 wins, 1 losses)
- Горняк — 11. place, 5 points after 5 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Полесье, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Горняк, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Полесье — 4, 2 draws, Горняк — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Polessya
WWWWW
5 wins
Hirnyk
LLDWL
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
Head to head 8
4Polessya
2Draw
2Hirnyk
- 14 MarPolessya — Hirnyk2:0
- 14 Sep 2025Hirnyk — Polessya0:1
- 25 May 2025Polessya — Hirnyk1:1
- 30 Nov 2024Hirnyk — Polessya3:1
- 30 Oct 2024Polessya — Hirnyk2:1
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:29Polessya are tipped to win, with the model placing their chances at 68%.
They sit ten points clear, having won five of six. Their recent run includes a 1:0 away win over Livyi Bereh on 13 September and a 5:1 home victory over Kudrivka on 4 September. Only the 1:2 defeat to Zorya Luhansk on 17 August breaks the pattern.
Hirnyk occupy 11th place with five points from five games, their record reading one win, two draws and two losses. They have scored five goals and let in seven across those fixtures. Tiago Borges is suspended after a red card and two yellows. They were knocked out of the cup on 22 August, losing 0:3 to Rokyka at home, while their last league match on 30 August ended 0:1 away at Chornomorets.
Polessya have won four of seven meetings, Hirnyk one, with two draws. The most recent encounter on 14 March 2026 ended 2:0 at the home ground, and before that Hirnyk lost 0:1 at home in September 2025.
The model projects a 2-1 win for Polessya, with a 21% chance of a draw, 57% for both teams to score, and 60% for three or more goals. The most likely scorelines are 2:1 at 10%, 1:1 at 10%, and 2:0 at 9%. Polessya tend to fire early, while Hirnyk are vulnerable in the 61-75 minute block.
Hirnyk sit deep. If they hold the score past the hour, the prediction falls apart.