Radomlje vs Olimpija Ljubljana: match prediction on 29 August 2026

Olimpija Ljubljana to win at Radomlje, 65% confidence. The visitors have won 13 of 17 meetings and carry a higher points tally despite playing one more match. Their expected goals figure of 1.6 sits above Radomlje's 1.1, and the model's most probable scoreline is 1:1, but the second most likely outcome is a 0:1 win for the away side.

History favours the visitors

Radomlje have won just twice in 17 encounters against Olimpija Ljubljana. Two draws and 13 victories for the guests create a pattern that does not require explanation. The hosts have not turned the tide in recent years, and the numbers do not suggest a reversal is imminent.

Radomlje sit 10th with four points from five games, while Olimpija occupy seventh place on seven points from six fixtures. The home side have lost three of their last five matches, the visitors two. Olimpija's form looks steadier, with two wins and a draw in their most recent five outings compared to Radomlje's single victory and a draw.

The model's numbers

Expected goals point to a narrow away victory. Olimpija's 1.6 versus Radomlje's 1.1 suggests the visitors are more likely to find the net. The 53% probability that both teams score means a clean sheet for either side is less common, but the 0:1 result at 11% probability edges the 1:2 option at 9%. A draw carries 25% weight, but the visitors' edge in head-to-head and expected goals tips the balance.

This conclusion stops holding if Radomlje start aggressively and score early. A first-half goal changes the game plan, forcing Olimpija to control rather than attack. The visitors prefer to run the clock down in these situations, and if the hosts take the lead, the match could drift toward a draw or even a home win. That is the main threat to the prediction.