Santo Domingo vs El Nacional: match prediction on 18 September 2026
Santo Domingo
El Nacional
Prediction for
Win: Santo Domingo
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
45%
1
25%
X
30%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28Santo Domingo vs El Nacional
Santo Domingo entered the fixture in eighth place with 28 points, while El Nacional sat in twelfth with 12 points after 22 matches. The hosts had recorded six victories, whereas the visitors had managed only two. Santo Domingo accumulated eight points from their previous five outings compared to El Nacional’s four. The visitors had suffered three defeats in that span, including a 0-3 loss away to Gualaceo SC.
El Nacional’s goal distribution highlighted a reliance on the middle stages of games, with 42 per cent of their goals falling between the 46th and 60th minutes. Their defensive record was more porous, conceding 24 per cent of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and another 24 per cent in the 46-60 minute window. Santo Domingo displayed a different profile, scoring 38 per cent of their goals in the final quarter of matches and conceding 40 per cent of theirs in the same period. The hosts’ recent five-match tally saw them score eight times while letting in five.
El Nacional’s attack was spearheaded by Jonathan Darwin Borja Colorado, who had netted four goals in the last six months, followed by Fricson Alexander Borja Meneses and L. Benalcazar with two apiece. Santo Domingo’s primary source of firepower was R. Calderón, responsible for two goals, the latest of which came against Cumbayá on 04.09.2026. Statistical averages from the last ten matches for El Nacional showed 48 per cent possession and 3.2 shots on target, while Santo Domingo’s four-match sample indicated similar possession but a higher output of 4.75 shots on target.
The two sides had met once in recent years, during a Copa Ecuador tie on 04.09.2024, where El Nacional secured a 3-2 victory at Santo Domingo’s ground. Pre-match models predicted a tight contest, estimating 1.6 goals for the hosts and 1.2 for the visitors, with a 25 per cent probability of a draw. The numbers pointed to a match where both teams might score, with a 56 per cent likelihood.
- Санто-Доминго — 8. place, 28 points after 22 games (6 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses)
- Эль Насиональ — 12. place, 12 points after 22 games (2 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses)
- Санто-Доминго, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Эль Насиональ, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Санто-Доминго — 0, Эль Насиональ — 1
Reasoning
Based on data as of 17 Sep, 08:28Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 1
- 4 Sep 2024Santo Domingo — El Nacional2:3
All head-to-head →Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+