Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Novin Ahvaz: match preview on 21 September 2026

Shenavarsazi Qeshm to win. The market has shifted decisively in their favour: the home win price dropped from 2.08 to 2.01 over four snapshots, a 3.4% swing that signals backing from bookmakers.

Shenavarsazi Qeshm have played five matches and taken 6 points from a possible 15. Their record reads 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. The most recent outing was a goalless draw away at Pars Jonoubi JAM on 15 September. Before that they beat Havadar 3:0 at home on 16 July. Three of their last five ended level, which suggests a side comfortable enough to grind out results but not always able to close them out.

Novin Ahvaz have played only one match, a 0:1 home defeat to Niroye Zamini on 15 September. They have 0 points from 1 match, sitting 14th in the table. Shenavarsazi Qeshm occupy 13th place with 1 point. Novin Ahvaz’s record is too thin to trust. Novin Ahvaz have not shown they can score — they have not scored in their only match this season.

No head-to-head history was found for this pairing. What exists is the goal-timing pattern for Shenavarsazi Qeshm: they score 50% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, with another 20% coming in the final 15. They concede 56% of their goals in the 76-90 minute period. The home side tends to start sharp and finish tired. Novin Ahvaz have no such breakdown available. The line movement — away win rising from 3.5 to 3.66, a 4.4% increase — reinforces the market's preference for the home side to take all three points.

xG data is unavailable, but the raw numbers point to a narrow result. Shenavarsazi Qeshm's early goal threat is significant, and Novin Ahvaz have not scored in 90 minutes of competitive action this season. A 1:0 scoreline is the most likely outcome, with 2:0 as a secondary possibility. A draw would require Novin Ahvaz to hold firm and manage the game effectively — something they have not yet demonstrated. One early away goal and the script flips.