Shkëndija Haraçinë vs Skopje: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Shkëndija Haraçinë to win on Sunday. The hosts carry four victories in their last five matches while Skopje have not won a single game this season, and the model puts Shkëndija's expected goals at 1.2 against Skopje's 0.9. That gap in form is the foundation of the prediction.

The hosts have been difficult to stop since the summer. They beat Detonit Plachkovica 3:1 in the cup on 9 September, then won three league outings in a row—Bregalnica Štip 1:0, Bashkimi Kumanovo 2:1, and Tikveš 1:0—before a 0:2 home defeat to Aresimi on 22 August. Four wins and one loss gives them 12 points from those five games, and they sit fifth in the table with 10 points after six matches.

Skopje's record is the opposite. They beat Kozuv Gevgelija 1:0 away in the cup on 9 September, but in the league they lost twice and drew twice: 1:2 at home to Bashkimi Kumanovo, 0:0 away at Aresimi, 1:1 at home against Tikveš, and 0:3 away at Sileks. One win, two draws, two losses—five points from five matches—and they remain ninth with just three points from six games.

Head-to-head history offers little comfort to the visitors. Two meetings have been played: Skopje drew 2:2 at home on 6 September 2025, then lost 1:2 away on 3 March 2026. Skopje have never beaten Shkëndija away from home in these fixtures.

Shkëndija create chances in bursts. They score 44% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window and 22% in the 76-90 minute period, but have not found the net between the 61st and 75th minute. Skopje's attack is concentrated differently—67% of their three goals have come in the 61-75 minute segment, with the remaining 33% split across the first half. Both sides are vulnerable in the second half: Shkëndija concede 27% of their goals after the 75th minute, while Skopje have let in 36% each in the 46-60 and 61-75 minute blocks.

The model's most likely outcome is a 1:0 scoreline at 15%, followed by a 1:1 draw at 13% and a goalless stalemate at 12%. The draw probability sits at 29%, both teams to score at 42%, and three or more goals at 36%. Shkëndija's possession average of 60% contrasts with Skopje's 37%, but Skopje register 4.6 shots on target per match at 78% accuracy compared to Shkëndija's 2.33 at 41%.

This conclusion stops holding if Skopje replicate their away cup performance. They beat Kozuv Gevgelija 1:0 on the road on 9 September, showing they can be organised defensively away from home. A draw suits the visitors—they have two draws in their last five matches and have not lost away in the cup this season. Given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.