Sivasspor vs Mardin BB: match prediction on 2 September 2026

Sivasspor win, 65% confidence. The model expects 1.5 goals for the hosts against 0.6 for the visitors, and Sivasspor's attacking distribution—29% of goals in the 16-30 minute window—aligns with Mardin BB's defensive fragility there, where they have conceded 21% of their total.

Recent form

Mardin BB sit fourth with eight points from four matches, unbeaten in all five of their recent games across both divisions. They have won three and drawn two, scoring eight and conceding just two. Sivasspor occupy eighteenth with two points from four matches and have failed to win any of their last five, taking only two points while conceding seven goals.

The hosts drew 2:2 at home against Manisa FK and lost 1:2 away to Batman Petrolspor in their two most recent fixtures. Mardin BB responded to a 1:1 home draw with Van BB by winning 3:0 away at Boluspor.

Timing patterns

Sivasspor score heavily between the 16th and 30th minutes, accounting for 29% of their 21 goals, and again in the opening 15 minutes at 19%. Mardin BB's defensive record mirrors this window: they have conceded 21% of their seven goals in the 16-30 minute period and 14% in the 31-45 minute block.

The visitors are most vulnerable late, with 43% of their goals conceded after the 75th minute. Sivasspor have scored 14% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, which could prove decisive if Mardin BB's concentration wavers.

Model expectations

The simulation projects Sivasspor at 1.5 expected goals and Mardin BB at 0.6. The most probable outcomes are 1:0 at 18%, 2:0 at 14%, and 0:0 at 12%. The draw probability sits at 26%, with both teams scoring at 36% and three or more goals at 36%.

Discipline and risk

Sivasspor carry two players on three yellow cards—Kamil Fidan and Valon Ethemi—each one booking away from suspension. Mardin BB have Mustafa Sengul, who received a red card on 29.08.2026. Either situation could alter the balance if a red card falls early.

A draw suits Mardin BB's profile: they have drawn two of four league matches and are comfortable protecting a point. If the visitors sit deep and manage the clock, the 26% draw probability becomes the primary threat to this prediction.

Key risks

This conclusion stops holding if Mardin BB maintain their defensive discipline for the full 90 minutes and exploit Sivasspor's tendency to concede 29% of goals after the 75th minute. It also fails if a disciplinary issue removes a key player before kick-off, since no team news is available to confirm availability.