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Spartak Kostroma vs FK Neftekhimik: match prediction on 14 September 2026
Spartak Kostroma
FK Neftekhimik
Prediction for
Win: Spartak Kostroma
47%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
29%
X
24%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 16:13- Спартак Кострома — 6. place, 18 points after 9 games (5 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses)
- Нефтехимик — 9. place, 12 points after 10 games (4 wins, 6 losses)
- Спартак Кострома, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Нефтехимик, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Спартак Кострома — 0, 1 draws, Нефтехимик — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Spartak Kostroma
DLWWW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
FK Neftekhimik
LWLWD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 3
0Spartak Kostroma
1Draw
2FK Neftekhimik
- 18 AprFK Neftekhimik — Spartak Kostroma3:1
- 3 Aug 2025Spartak Kostroma — FK Neftekhimik1:1
- 15 Feb 2023FK Neftekhimik — Spartak Kostroma4:0
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 12 Sep, 16:13Spartak Kostroma to win
The home side holds the edge. They sit six points clear of Neftekhimik in the table and come into this match on a run of three straight victories, while the visitors have lost twice in their last five outings. The model expects Spartak to score 1.3 goals compared to Neftekhimik's 0.8, and the most likely scoreline is 1:0 at 15%.
Recent form
Spartak Kostroma collected 10 points from their last five matches — wins against Ryazan 2:0 and Chelyabinsk 1:0 in cup and league action, plus a 1:0 home victory over Rotor Volgograd. Their only blemish was a 0:3 defeat away to Torpedo Moscow. Neftekhimik managed just 7 points in the same period, with victories over Enisey 2:0 and Rotor Volgograd 1:0, but losses to UFA 0:1 and Sochi 1:2.
Head-to-head record
Neftekhimik have dominated this fixture in recent years. In three meetings Spartak Kostroma have won zero times, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent encounter on 18 April 2026 saw Neftekhimik win 3:1 away from home, while the previous league meeting on 3 August 2025 ended 1:1 at Spartak's ground.
Where the match will be decided
Spartak Kostroma score most of their goals in the 46-60 minute window, accounting for 29% of their total. Neftekhimik, by contrast, have 38% of their goals in the final 15 minutes. Spartak also concede heavily in the opening 15 minutes (20%) and again after the break (20% in both 46-60 and 76-90). If Spartak can survive the early pressure and exploit the middle period, they should control this match.
What breaks the prediction
A draw suits Neftekhimik given their tendency to score late and Spartak's vulnerability in the opening stages. If the visitors hold their nerve and take the game into the final 15 minutes, they could snatch a point — and that is the main threat to this conclusion.